College Football Playoff Predictor
It starts from the selection committee ranking of November 10 and applies the real rules of the 12-team field. Pick the games left and each team’s odds change. The projected ranking is our estimate, not the committee’s, so you can move any team by hand.
The 12-team bracket
Click a team to send it through
First roundDec. 18-19
QuarterfinalsDec. 30-Jan. 1
SemifinalsJan. 14-15
Title gameJan. 25, Las Vegas
Projected ranking and Playoff odds
| # | Team | Now | Seed | Playoff | Bye | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bye 1 | 97% | 71% | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bye 2 | 97% | 76% | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bye 3 | 96% | 61% | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bye 4 | 97% | 65% | ||
| 5 | 5 | In 5 | 95% | 19% | ||
| 6 | 6 | In 6 | 85% | 15% | ||
| 7 | 7 | In 7 | 93% | 44% | ||
| 8 | 8 | In 8 | 71% | 5% | ||
| 9 | 9 | In 9 | 67% | 23% | ||
| 10 | 10 | In 10 | 68% | 15% | ||
| 11 | 11 | In 11 | 56% | 0% | ||
| 12 | 12 | Out | 53% | 4% | ||
| 13 | 13 | Out | 61% | 2% | ||
| 14 | 15 | Out | 25% | 0% | ||
| 15 | 16 | Out | 18% | 0% | ||
| 16 | 17 | Out | 10% | 0% | ||
| 17 | 18 | Out | 4% | 0% | ||
| 18 | 19 | Out | 3% | 0% | ||
| 19 | 20 | Out | 1% | 0% | ||
| 20 | 21 | Out | 1% | 0% | ||
| 21 | 22 | Out | 1% | 0% | ||
| 22 | 23 | Out | 0% | 0% | ||
| 23 | 24 | In 12 | 83% | 0% | ||
| 24 | 14 | Out | 0% | 0% | ||
| 25 | 25 | Out | 0% | 0% | ||
| 26 | – | Out | 17% | 0% | ||
| 27 | – | Out | 1% | 0% |
Path to the Playoff
Texas Tech are 8-1, No. 12 and outside the field in this scenario, with a 53% chance of making the Playoff.
- Nov 14at
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- Nov 26at
Pick the games
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2 games played since the last ranking already count, and are locked.
Conference champions
About the College Football playoff predictor
A College Football Playoff predictor for the 2026 season. It opens on the field as it would stand if the season ended today, based on the selection committee's latest ranking, and shows each team's chance of making the 12-team Playoff and of earning a first-round bye.
The bracket follows the official 2026-27 rules. The champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC are in. So is the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt, whether or not it wins its conference, and Notre Dame if it finishes in the top 12. The best remaining teams take the other places. The four highest-ranked teams get the byes, and automatic qualifiers ranked outside the top 12 go to the bottom of the seeding.
How to use the College Football playoff predictor
- Choose a team under Path to the Playoff to see its odds, its remaining games and how much one more loss would cost it.
- Pick winners game by game, or use Favorites win out or Simulate the rest to fill in every game still to be played.
- Set a conference champion by hand, or leave it on Auto to use the team our projection ranks highest.
- Use the arrows in the table when you think the committee would rank a team differently; the field and the bracket follow.
- Click teams in the bracket to send them through to the title game. For the games themselves, see the college football schedule.
College Football playoff predictor FAQ
How accurate is the projected ranking?
Treat it as an estimate. A 13-member committee votes on the real ranking, so no formula can reproduce it. We start from its latest ranking, add points for each win (more for beating a highly ranked team) and subtract points for each loss (more for losing to a weak one), and give conference champions a bonus. The methodology page has the numbers.
What do the Playoff percentages mean?
The predictor plays the games still to come 2,000 times, using the current ranking to set each team's chances, and counts how often each team reaches the field. The percentages change with your picks. They are not betting odds and have not been tested against past seasons.
Does the Group of Six bid go to a conference champion?
Not in 2026-27. The bid goes to the highest-ranked team from those six conferences, whether or not it wins its title. In the 2024 and 2025 seasons the automatic bids went to the five highest-ranked conference champions.
When is the real field announced?
On Selection Day, Sunday, December 6, 2026. The committee's other rankings come out on Tuesdays: November 10, 17 and 24, and December 1. This page starts again from each new ranking.
What does the predictor leave out?
It uses only the 25 teams in the committee's ranking plus any others in the AP or Coaches polls, and it does not apply conference tiebreakers: in each simulation, the two teams with the highest projected scores in a conference meet in its title game. It also treats every game as having a home team, including neutral-site games.
From the blog
- Every College Football National Champion Since 1936, and Who Has Won the MostAlabama has 12 AP national titles, the most since the poll began in 1936. Every AP, coaches' poll, BCS and playoff champion, with splits and conferences.
- About 15 of the AP Preseason Top 25 Are Still Ranked When the Season EndsSince 1989, 62 percent of the AP preseason Top 25 finished the season ranked, and 52 percent since 2020. The biggest drops, risers and the 2026 poll so far.
- The AP No. 1 Lost 101 Times in 58 Seasons, and Every Loss Cost It the Top SpotThe AP No. 1 lost 101 times in 58 seasons from 1968 to 2025, about 1.7 a season, and never kept the spot after a loss. Upsets, reigns and 2026's three losses.