NFL Playoff Predictor
The seeds as they stand, with the NFL’s official tiebreakers. Pick the games left and the playoff picture, the bracket and every team’s odds change with each click. Games already played are locked — those are facts, not predictions.
Playoff picture
AFC
- 1
Buffalo Bills7-1 · Division · bye - 2
Denver Broncos7-2 · Division - 3
Jacksonville Jaguars6-2 · DivisionAhead of Steelers on conference record - 4
Pittsburgh Steelers6-2 · DivisionWins the division over Bengals on head-to-head - 5
Kansas City Chiefs6-2 · Wild cardAhead of Bengals on conference record - 6
Cincinnati Bengals6-2 · Wild card - 7
New England Patriots5-4 · Wild cardAhead of Browns on conference record
In the hunt
- 8
Cleveland Browns5-4Behind Patriots on conference record - 9
Las Vegas Raiders4-5Ahead of Ravens on conference record - 10
Baltimore Ravens4-5
NFC
- 1
San Francisco 49ers7-1 · Division · bye - 2
Chicago Bears7-2 · Division - 3
New York Giants5-3-1 · Division - 4
Carolina Panthers3-5 · DivisionWins the division over Saints on division record - 5
Detroit Lions6-2 · Wild cardAhead of Vikings on head-to-head - 6
Minnesota Vikings6-2 · Wild card - 7
Green Bay Packers6-3 · Wild card
In the hunt
- 8
Seattle Seahawks5-4Ahead of Rams on division record - 9
Los Angeles Rams5-4 - 10
Dallas Cowboys4-5
Playoff bracket
Click a team to send it through
Wild Card2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5
DivisionalThe No. 1 seed hosts the lowest seed left
ConferenceChampionship games
Super BowlAFC champion v NFC champion
Playoff odds
5,000 simulated seasons
| Seed | Team | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 seed | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99% | 88% | 38% | 14% | |
| 2 | 94% | 57% | 16% | 5% | |
| 3 | 98% | 94% | 20% | 16% | |
| 4 | 82% | 38% | 6% | 3% | |
| 5 | 91% | 42% | 9% | 6% | |
| 6 | 91% | 57% | 10% | 6% | |
| 7 | 68% | 12% | 1% | 2% | |
| 8 | 27% | 4% | <1% | <1% | |
| 9 | 11% | 1% | – | <1% | |
| 10 | 10% | 1% | – | <1% | |
| 11 | 29% | 6% | <1% | 1% | |
| 12 | <1% | – | – | <1% | |
| 13 | 1% | <1% | – | <1% | |
| 14 | <1% | <1% | – | – | |
| 15 | <1% | <1% | – | – | |
| 16 | <1% | – | – | – |
| Seed | Team | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 seed | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 96% | 86% | 47% | 14% | |
| 2 | 85% | 31% | 16% | 7% | |
| 3 | 58% | 56% | 1% | 1% | |
| 4 | 25% | 24% | <1% | 1% | |
| 5 | 78% | 30% | 15% | 5% | |
| 6 | 81% | 28% | 14% | 5% | |
| 7 | 64% | 12% | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 49% | 9% | 1% | 4% | |
| 9 | 40% | 5% | 1% | 2% | |
| 10 | 31% | 30% | <1% | 1% | |
| 11 | 13% | 13% | – | <1% | |
| 12 | 16% | 16% | <1% | <1% | |
| 13 | 45% | 44% | <1% | 1% | |
| 14 | 16% | 16% | – | <1% | |
| 15 | 1% | <1% | – | – | |
| 16 | 1% | 1% | – | <1% |
What a team needs
The Cleveland Browns are 5-4, No. 8 in the AFC, outside the seven playoff places as it stands, with a 27% chance of making the playoffs.
| Final wins | How often | Makes the playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | >99% |
| 11 | 7% | 98% |
| 10 | 16% | 74% |
| 9 | 23% | 22% |
| 8 | 24% | 2% |
| 7 | 18% | – |
| 6 | 8% | – |
| 5 | 2% | – |
- Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · Final 10-34at
- Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20 · Final 23-19at
- Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Final 18-21at
- Week 4 · Thu, Oct 1 · Final 24-27at
- Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Final 12-17at
- Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Final 10-13at
- Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · Final 27-24at
- Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · Final 6-27at
- Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Final 22-23at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29at
- Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6at
- Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13at
- Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20at
- Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27at
- Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3at
- Week 18 · Sun, Jan 10, time TBDat
Pick the games
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15at
- Week 10 · Mon, Nov 16at
About the NFL simulator
The NFL playoff predictor starts from the standings as they are, with every game played so far, and seeds both conferences the way the league does: the four division winners first, then the three best of the rest, with the NFL's official tiebreakers settling any teams level on record. Pick a winner in any game left in the 2026 regular season and the playoff picture, the bracket and every team's odds update at once.
Seven teams from each conference reach the playoffs, which begin on January 16, 2027, after Week 18. The No. 1 seed has a bye, the other six play on Wild Card weekend, and in the divisional round the top seed hosts the lowest seed left. The odds come from 5,000 simulated seasons of the games not yet decided; the 2026 NFL schedule lists the same games with kickoff times and stadiums.
How to use the NFL simulator
- Click a team in any game still to be played to make it the winner, and click it again to undo. Games already played are locked with their real results.
- Favorites win out picks the team the model rates more likely in every open game, Simulate the rest draws a random result for each one, and Reset goes back to real results only.
- In the bracket, click a team to send it through each round, from Wild Card weekend to the Super Bowl.
- Choose a team under What a team needs to see its odds, how often it ends the season on each number of wins, how often that number is enough, and its games left to pick.
NFL simulator FAQ
How does the predictor break ties?
With the NFL's own procedure. Two teams in the same division go to head-to-head, then division record, record in common games, conference record, strength of victory and strength of schedule, before points rankings and net points. A wild-card tie between teams from different divisions uses head-to-head only if they met, then conference record and common games, with a minimum of four. With three or more teams, only the best-placed team from each division stays in, and head-to-head only counts as a sweep.
Where do the playoff odds come from?
Each team gets a power rating in points: its margins in this season's games, adjusted for opponents and home field, blended with 40% of last season's point differential per game, so this season weighs more as it goes on. The predictor plays the remaining schedule and the playoffs 5,000 times, and a team's odds are the share of those seasons in which it gets there.
Why can a team with a worse record have better odds?
The odds look ahead. They weigh how strong each team is and how hard its remaining schedule is, so a 5-3 team with an easy run-in can rate ahead of a 6-2 team with a difficult one, even though the 6-2 team holds the higher seed today.
Is anything in the official procedure left out?
Two steps can't be applied exactly. Net touchdowns, which come after net points, aren't in the schedule data, and the games you pick have a winner but no score, so the points-based steps count only games already played. The last step, a coin toss, is settled by a fixed draw. Simulated games never end in a tie, though real ties count as half a win and half a loss.
From the blog
- An NFL Game Lasts 3 Hours and 4 Minutes: We Timed Every Play Since 2001An NFL game lasts 3:04 in real time for 60 minutes of game clock, by our timing of every play since 2001. Every season, plus halftime, playoffs and Super Bowl.
- Cam Little's 68 Yards Is the NFL Record, and a 61-Yard Try Is Now a Coin FlipThe longest field goal in NFL history is Cam Little's 68 yards. From every try since 1999: the coin-flip distance moved from 53 yards in 1999-2003 to 61 now.
- Every NFL MVP Since 1957, From Jim Brown to Matthew StaffordPeyton Manning has the most NFL MVP awards, five. Every AP winner from 1957 to Matthew Stafford in 2025, by position and team, and the MVP's Super Bowl record.