We compared the AP preseason poll with the AP final poll, whose No. 1 is the AP national champion, for every season from 1950 to 2025. The polls come from the complete archive of weekly AP polls, and every No. 1 was checked against the NCAA record book and the College Football Playoff.
How often the preseason No. 1 wins the national championship
Eleven preseason No. 1s have finished on top, from six programs:
- Oklahoma, four times: 1956, 1974, 1975 and 1985.
- Alabama, twice: 1978 and 2017.
- Florida State, twice: 1993 and 1999.
- Tennessee in 1951, Michigan State in 1952 and Southern California (USC) in 2004.
Only two led every poll of their season, preseason included: Florida State in 1999 and USC in 2004. The rate has not risen in the era of title games: 8 of 48 from 1950 to 1997, 2 of 16 in the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) era of 1998 to 2013 and 1 of 12 since the playoff began in 2014.
The current wait is the third longest. No preseason No. 1 has won since Alabama in 2017, eight seasons in a row, behind the 17 seasons from 1957 to 1973 and the 12 from 2005 to 2016.
Where national champions start in the preseason AP poll
Start from the champions and the preseason poll looks better: 41 of the 76 began the season in the top five and 58 in the top 10. The most productive spot is No. 2, with 13 titles, though No. 1 still beats the average of 7.5 for each spot from No. 2 to No. 5.
| Preseason rank | Champions, 1950-2025 | Share | Playoff era, 2014-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | 11 | 14% | 1 |
| No. 2 | 13 | 17% | 4 |
| No. 3 to 5 | 17 | 22% | 5 |
| No. 6 to 10 | 17 | 22% | 1 |
| No. 11 to 25 | 12 | 16% | 1 |
| Unranked | 6 | 8% | 0 |
In the playoff era, 10 of 12 champions started in the top five. The exceptions were Louisiana State (LSU) in 2019, sixth, and Indiana last season, 20th, the lowest start for a champion since Auburn won from 22nd in 2010. Auburn's is the lowest start of any ranked champion since 1950; Ohio State in 1954 and Syracuse in 1959 also won from 20th.
The last national champion that started unranked
Brigham Young (BYU) in 1984. The Cougars were not in the preseason Top 20, went 13-0 and finished No. 1, the third unranked champion in four seasons after Clemson in 1981 and Miami (Fla.) in 1983. LSU in 1958, Minnesota in 1960 and USC in 1962 had done it earlier, USC when the preseason poll ranked only 10 teams.
Nobody has done it since. All 41 champions from 1985 to 2025 were ranked before the season, and since the poll grew to 25 teams in 1989 no champion has started lower than Auburn's 22nd.
How far the preseason No. 1 falls
Most preseason No. 1s stay near the top. Forty-eight of the 76 finished in the top five, and 11 finished second, as many as finished first. But 15, one in five, ended the season outside the top 10.
- Six dropped out of the final poll altogether: Notre Dame in 1950, Iowa in 1961, Ohio State in 1962, USC in 1963, Ole Miss in 1964 and USC again in 2012. Four of them came when the poll ranked only 10 teams.
- The other nine finished between 12th and 19th, most recently Texas last season, 12th.
Texas shows how fast it can go. The 2025 preseason No. 1 lost its opener 14-7 at Ohio State, fell out of the rankings for a week in October after a loss at Florida and finished 12th at 10-3. The NCAA record book lists it as the 12th preseason No. 1 since 1950 never to regain the top spot.
The preseason No. 1 in the College Football Playoff era
| Season | Preseason No. 1 | Final AP rank | Playoff | Champion (preseason rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Florida State | 5 | Lost semifinal | Ohio State (5) |
| 2015 | Ohio State | 4 | Missed | Alabama (3) |
| 2016 | Alabama | 2 | Lost final | Clemson (2) |
| 2017 | Alabama | 1 | Won title | Alabama (1) |
| 2018 | Alabama | 2 | Lost final | Clemson (2) |
| 2019 | Clemson | 2 | Lost final | LSU (6) |
| 2020 | Clemson | 3 | Lost semifinal | Alabama (3) |
| 2021 | Alabama | 2 | Lost final | Georgia (5) |
| 2022 | Alabama | 5 | Missed | Georgia (3) |
| 2023 | Georgia | 4 | Missed | Michigan (2) |
| 2024 | Georgia | 6 | Lost quarterfinal | Ohio State (2) |
| 2025 | Texas | 12 | Missed | Indiana (20) |
Eight of the 12 preseason No. 1s made the playoff and five reached the title game, all of them Alabama or Clemson between 2016 and 2021. Only Alabama in 2017 won it, 26-23 in overtime against Georgia. In the two seasons of the 12-team playoff, Georgia went out in the quarterfinals and Texas did not make the field.
Ohio State, the 2026 preseason No. 1
Ohio State started this season at No. 1 in the AP preseason poll released Aug. 17, with 40 first-place votes, ahead of Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame and Texas; Indiana, the defending champion, was sixth. It is the ninth time the Buckeyes have been the preseason No. 1, one fewer than Oklahoma and as many as Alabama.
None of the eight earlier Ohio State teams that started No. 1 finished there; the closest were second in 1998 and 2006. The program's five AP titles since 1950 all came from further back, from 20th in 1954 to second in 2024. Nebraska, six times the preseason No. 1, and Notre Dame, five times, never won the title in any of those seasons either.
This year's team has already lost the top spot. After beating Ball State 56-3, Ohio State lost 24-23 at Texas on Sept. 12, when the Longhorns came back from 20 points down in the fourth quarter. Texas, fifth in the preseason poll, has been No. 1 since, and in the Sept. 27 poll it leads Georgia, Notre Dame and Miami, with Ohio State fifth at 3-1.
The playoff final is in Las Vegas on Jan. 25, 2027. Until then the weekly poll is on our college football rankings and the games ahead on the FBS schedule, both in the college football section.
Every preseason No. 1 and national champion since 1950
| Season | Preseason No. 1 (final rank) | AP champion (preseason rank) |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | Notre Dame (NR) | Oklahoma (6) |
| 1951 | Tennessee (1) | Tennessee (1) |
| 1952 | Michigan State (1) | Michigan State (1) |
| 1953 | Notre Dame (2) | Maryland (9) |
| 1954 | Notre Dame (4) | Ohio State (20) |
| 1955 | UCLA (4) | Oklahoma (2) |
| 1956 | Oklahoma (1) | Oklahoma (1) |
| 1957 | Oklahoma (4) | Auburn (15) |
| 1958 | Ohio State (8) | LSU (NR) |
| 1959 | LSU (3) | Syracuse (20) |
| 1960 | Syracuse (19) | Minnesota (NR) |
| 1961 | Iowa (NR) | Alabama (3) |
| 1962 | Ohio State (NR) | USC (NR) |
| 1963 | USC (NR) | Texas (5) |
| 1964 | Ole Miss (NR) | Alabama (6) |
| 1965 | Nebraska (5) | Alabama (5) |
| 1966 | Alabama (3) | Notre Dame (6) |
| 1967 | Notre Dame (5) | USC (7) |
| 1968 | Purdue (10) | Ohio State (11) |
| 1969 | Ohio State (4) | Texas (4) |
| 1970 | Ohio State (5) | Nebraska (9) |
| 1971 | Notre Dame (13) | Nebraska (2) |
| 1972 | Nebraska (4) | USC (8) |
| 1973 | USC (8) | Notre Dame (8) |
| 1974 | Oklahoma (1) | Oklahoma (1) |
| 1975 | Oklahoma (1) | Oklahoma (1) |
| 1976 | Nebraska (9) | Pittsburgh (9) |
| 1977 | Oklahoma (7) | Notre Dame (3) |
| 1978 | Alabama (1) | Alabama (1) |
| 1979 | USC (2) | Alabama (2) |
| 1980 | Ohio State (15) | Georgia (16) |
| 1981 | Michigan (12) | Clemson (NR) |
| 1982 | Pittsburgh (10) | Penn State (8) |
| 1983 | Nebraska (2) | Miami (NR) |
| 1984 | Auburn (14) | BYU (NR) |
| 1985 | Oklahoma (1) | Oklahoma (1) |
| 1986 | Oklahoma (3) | Penn State (6) |
| 1987 | Oklahoma (3) | Miami (10) |
| 1988 | Florida State (3) | Notre Dame (13) |
| 1989 | Michigan (7) | Miami (4) |
| 1990 | Miami (3) | Colorado (5) |
| 1991 | Florida State (4) | Miami (3) |
| 1992 | Miami (3) | Alabama (9) |
| 1993 | Florida State (1) | Florida State (1) |
| 1994 | Florida (7) | Nebraska (4) |
| 1995 | Florida State (4) | Nebraska (2) |
| 1996 | Nebraska (6) | Florida (4) |
| 1997 | Penn State (16) | Michigan (14) |
| 1998 | Ohio State (2) | Tennessee (10) |
| 1999 | Florida State (1) | Florida State (1) |
| 2000 | Nebraska (8) | Oklahoma (19) |
| 2001 | Florida (3) | Miami (2) |
| 2002 | Miami (2) | Ohio State (13) |
| 2003 | Oklahoma (3) | USC (8); BCS: LSU (14) |
| 2004 | USC (1) | USC (1) |
| 2005 | USC (2) | Texas (2) |
| 2006 | Ohio State (2) | Florida (7) |
| 2007 | USC (3) | LSU (2) |
| 2008 | Georgia (13) | Florida (5) |
| 2009 | Florida (3) | Alabama (5) |
| 2010 | Alabama (10) | Auburn (22) |
| 2011 | Oklahoma (16) | Alabama (2) |
| 2012 | USC (NR) | Alabama (2) |
| 2013 | Alabama (7) | Florida State (11) |
| 2014 | Florida State (5) | Ohio State (5) |
| 2015 | Ohio State (4) | Alabama (3) |
| 2016 | Alabama (2) | Clemson (2) |
| 2017 | Alabama (1) | Alabama (1) |
| 2018 | Alabama (2) | Clemson (2) |
| 2019 | Clemson (2) | LSU (6) |
| 2020 | Clemson (3) | Alabama (3) |
| 2021 | Alabama (2) | Georgia (5) |
| 2022 | Alabama (5) | Georgia (3) |
| 2023 | Georgia (4) | Michigan (2) |
| 2024 | Georgia (6) | Ohio State (2) |
| 2025 | Texas (12) | Indiana (20) |
Preseason No. 1 and the national title: frequently asked questions
How often does the preseason No. 1 win the national championship? Eleven times in 76 seasons, 14 percent, from the AP's first preseason poll in 1950 to 2025, and once in the 12 seasons of the College Football Playoff: Alabama in 2017.
When did the preseason No. 1 last win the national title? In the 2017 season, when Alabama beat Georgia 26-23 in overtime in the playoff final. USC in 2004 and Florida State in 1999 did it before that.
Has an unranked team ever won the national championship? Six times in the AP poll since 1950, most recently BYU in 1984. All 41 champions since then started the season in the preseason poll.
Who was the preseason No. 1 in 2026? Ohio State, with 40 first-place votes in the AP poll of Aug. 17. The Buckeyes lost 24-23 at Texas on Sept. 12 and are fifth in the Sept. 27 poll, in which Texas is No. 1.
Which team has been the preseason No. 1 most often? Oklahoma, 10 times since 1950, and four of those teams won the title. Alabama and Ohio State have been first nine times each, counting Ohio State this season.
How this was built: the preseason and final AP polls of every season from 1950, the first year with a preseason poll, to 2025, from College Poll Archive. The champion is the final poll's No. 1; that poll came out before the bowl games until 1967, except in 1965. Every preseason No. 1 and champion matches the NCAA's FBS record book, and every playoff champion the College Football Playoff's list. The AP and BCS champions differed only in 2003. Unranked means outside the poll: 20 teams through 1960, 10 from 1961 to 1967, 20 through 1988, 25 since. The 2026 figures are from the AP polls of Aug. 17 and Sept. 27.