The 2026 NBA Cup, Group by Group: Who Gets to Indianapolis

The 2026 NBA Cup began on Friday, October 30, and through Nov. 2 ten of its 60 group games had been played. Before the first one we simulated the whole Cup 100,000 times: the Oklahoma City Thunder won it in 24% of the runs, well ahead of Detroit (13%) and San Antonio (13%), and of the teams that went 3-1 in their group without winning it, 58% never reached the knockout rounds.

Updated 9 min read
Two bar charts of each team's preseason chance, from simulations run before any game, to reach the 2026 NBA Cup knockout rounds. Oklahoma City leads the West at 77% and Detroit the East at 69%; the Thunder win the Cup in 24% of simulations.
Preseason chance to reach the knockout rounds for all 30 teams, with the chance to win the Cup in gray.Chart: Vertize Sports · Data: ESPN · CC BY 4.0

The Cup returned for its fourth edition on Friday, October 30, ten days after the opening night of the 2026-27 season. Each team plays four group games that also count in the regular-season standings, and eight teams go on to the knockout rounds in December. The final moves this year from Las Vegas to Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, on December 11.

NBA Cup 2026 group results so far

Only the first Cup night, October 30, had been played through Nov. 2: ten of the 60 group games, six in the East and four in the West. Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia, Miami, Washington, Boston, Dallas, Denver, Minnesota and Golden State won their group openers, and none of the ten games went to overtime. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Atlanta, Utah, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Memphis, San Antonio, Portland and Sacramento had not yet played a group game.

Group games played on October 30, 2026, winner first. Through Nov. 2, no other group game had been played.
GroupWinnerScoreLoser
East Group ADetroit Pistons110-94Brooklyn Nets
East Group AOrlando Magic121-114Toronto Raptors
East Group BMiami Heat145-125Indiana Pacers
East Group BPhiladelphia 76ers98-93New York Knicks
East Group CBoston Celtics125-111Chicago Bulls
East Group CWashington Wizards95-79Charlotte Hornets
West Group ADallas Mavericks116-111Houston Rockets
West Group ADenver Nuggets127-120Phoenix Suns
West Group BMinnesota Timberwolves127-101LA Clippers
West Group CGolden State Warriors112-95Los Angeles Lakers

Before the first game, we played the whole thing forward 100,000 times with the game model behind the Vertize NBA simulator: every group game on the real schedule, the tiebreakers as the league applies them, and each round of the bracket. Those preseason estimates, from September 28, are in the group tables further down; they have not been updated for the results so far.

How the 2026 NBA Cup works

  • The 30 teams were drawn at random into six groups of five, three per conference, based on their 2025-26 records.
  • Each team plays the other four in its group once, two at home and two away, on Cup nights between October 30 and November 27. Every group game counts in the standings.
  • The six group winners and one wild card per conference, the best record among the teams that did not win their group, advance: eight teams in all.
  • Ties are broken by head-to-head result, then point differential in group play, then total points, then the 2025-26 record. Games that go to overtime count as zero in the point-differential tiebreaker.
  • The quarterfinals (December 4-5) and, new this year, the semifinals (December 8-9) are played at the higher seed's arena. The final is on Friday, December 11 in Indianapolis, and it is the only Cup game that does not count in the standings.

The six groups and our preseason estimates

The tables list each group from the likeliest winner to the least likely, with the preseason chance of winning the group, of reaching the knockout rounds either way and of lifting the Cup. The team ratings are each side's point differential per game last season, so a club that changed a lot over the summer is where its 2025-26 numbers put it.

Preseason simulation (Sept. 28), share of 100,000 runs. Knockouts: group winner or wild card.
TeamGroup2025-26Wins groupKnockoutsWins Cup
Detroit PistonsGroup A60-2255%69%13%
Toronto RaptorsGroup A46-3623%35%2%
Orlando MagicGroup A45-3717%24%1%
Milwaukee BucksGroup A32-503%4%under 1%
Brooklyn NetsGroup A20-621%2%under 1%
New York KnicksGroup B53-2941%50%7%
Cleveland CavaliersGroup B52-3026%33%3%
Miami HeatGroup B43-3919%25%2%
Philadelphia 76ersGroup B45-3713%15%under 1%
Indiana PacersGroup B19-632%2%under 1%
Boston CelticsGroup C56-2646%62%11%
Charlotte HornetsGroup C44-3831%44%5%
Atlanta HawksGroup C46-3619%29%2%
Chicago BullsGroup C31-513%5%under 1%
Washington WizardsGroup C17-651%1%under 1%
Preseason simulation (Sept. 28), share of 100,000 runs. Knockouts: group winner or wild card.
TeamGroup2025-26Wins groupKnockoutsWins Cup
Denver NuggetsGroup A54-2838%50%5%
Houston RocketsGroup A52-3036%49%5%
Phoenix SunsGroup A45-3720%28%1%
Dallas MavericksGroup A26-564%6%under 1%
Utah JazzGroup A22-602%3%under 1%
Oklahoma City ThunderGroup B64-1863%77%24%
Minnesota TimberwolvesGroup B49-3318%29%2%
LA ClippersGroup B42-4013%19%1%
New Orleans PelicansGroup B26-563%4%under 1%
Memphis GrizzliesGroup B25-572%3%under 1%
San Antonio SpursGroup C62-2055%68%13%
Los Angeles LakersGroup C53-2918%27%1%
Portland Trail BlazersGroup C42-4014%19%1%
Golden State WarriorsGroup C37-4512%17%under 1%
Sacramento KingsGroup C22-601%1%under 1%
Bar charts of every team's preseason chance to reach the 2026 NBA Cup knockout rounds, by conference. Oklahoma City 77%, with the chance to win the Cup in gray.
Preseason chance of reaching the knockouts, by conference. Gray: chance to win the Cup.Chart: Vertize Sports · Data: ESPN · CC BY 4.0

Why 3-1 is often not enough in the NBA Cup

Only one of the twelve teams that finish behind a group winner in each conference goes through, and in our simulations that wild card has a 3-1 record 97% of the time. On an average draw, 4.6 teams go 3-1 without winning their group, across both conferences, and only two of them advance.

That makes point differential the stat that matters in November. With several 3-1 teams tied on record and no head-to-head result between them, the wild card goes to the one that won by more, so a team up by 20 on a Cup night has a reason to keep scoring. Winning the group takes a perfect record about half the time: group winners go 4-0 in 51% of our simulations. And in a three-way tie at 3-1, where each team beat one of the others, it comes down to point differential again.

The top four in the preseason simulations: Oklahoma City, Detroit, San Antonio and Boston

The Thunder had the best point differential in the league last season, +11.1 a game, and landed in West Group B with Minnesota, the Clippers, New Orleans and Memphis. In the preseason simulations they win the group 63% of the time, reach the knockouts 77% and the final 37%. Nobody else is as secure: Detroit wins East Group A 55% of the time and San Antonio West Group C 55%, and Boston is the likeliest winner of East Group C at 46%. Through Nov. 2, Detroit had won at Brooklyn, 110-94, and Boston had beaten Chicago, 125-111; the Thunder and the Spurs had not yet played a group game.

The defending champions are further back. The Knicks beat San Antonio 124-113 in last year's Cup final and then beat them again in the NBA Finals, the first time the two Cup finalists met for the title. But their 2025-26 point differential of +6.3 was the fifth best in the league, and East Group B is the only group with four teams that won at least half their games last season: New York wins it 41% of the time, Cleveland 26%, Miami 19% and Philadelphia 13%. The model gave the Knicks 7% to repeat before they lost their group opener, 98-93 at Philadelphia.

The most open group is West Group A, where Denver (38%) and Houston (36%) both finished last season at +5.2 points a game and Phoenix wins it 20% of the time. In the group's first games, Denver won at Phoenix, 127-120, and Dallas beat Houston, 116-111. And one team the tables flag is Charlotte: a 44-38 side last year with a +4.8 differential, better than its record, which reaches the knockouts 44% of the time from Boston's group. The Hornets lost their group opener at Washington, 95-79.

Across the bracket the two conferences are close to level: the East wins the Cup 46% of the time and the West 54%. The top of the draw belongs to the West, but its three top-rated teams can also meet each other: seeds one to four play within each conference until the final.

The 2026 NBA Cup schedule

  • Group play: Friday nights from October 30 to November 27, plus Tuesday, November 24 and Wednesday, November 25. The full nights are on the November NBA schedule.
  • Quarterfinals: December 4-5, at the arenas of the higher seeds: the two best group winners in each conference host the third group winner and the wild card.
  • Semifinals: December 8-9, one per conference, again at the higher seed's arena.
  • Final: Friday, December 11, at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Past NBA Cup winners

All three finals were played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
SeasonChampionFinalRunner-upMVP
2023-24Los Angeles Lakers123-109Indiana PacersLeBron James
2024-25Milwaukee Bucks97-81Oklahoma City ThunderGiannis Antetokounmpo
2025-26New York Knicks124-113San Antonio SpursJalen Brunson

Three editions, three different champions, and none of them the team with the best record the season before. It is a reminder of how short the path is: four group games and three knockout games decide it, where the regular season takes 82. For how the same teams project over a full season, see our 2026-27 NBA predictor.

NBA Cup 2026: frequently asked questions

When did the 2026 NBA Cup start? On Friday, October 30, with ten group games on the first night. The group stage ends on November 27 and the knockout rounds start on December 4.

What are the 2026 NBA Cup results so far? Through Nov. 2 only the first Cup night, October 30, had been played. Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia, Miami, Washington, Boston, Dallas, Denver, Minnesota and Golden State won their group openers.

Where is the 2026 NBA Cup final? At Hinkle Fieldhouse, Butler University's arena in Indianapolis, on Friday, December 11. The first three finals were in Las Vegas.

How many teams make the NBA Cup knockout rounds? Eight: the six group winners and one wild card from each conference, the non-winner with the best group record.

Which team led our preseason simulations for the 2026 NBA Cup? The Oklahoma City Thunder, in 24% of 100,000 runs made before any game, followed by Detroit (13%), San Antonio (13%) and Boston (11%).

Do NBA Cup games count in the standings? Yes, all of them except the final. Group games and the knockout games up to the semifinals count as regular-season games; the two finalists play 83 games instead of 82.

How this was built: the groups and the 60 group games come from NBA.com and ESPN's 2026-27 schedule, and the results through Nov. 2 from ESPN's scoreboard. The simulations date from September 28, before any game, and have not been updated for results. Every game is simulated with the model from the Vertize NBA simulator: each team is rated on its 2025-26 point differential per game, the home side gets 1.72 points, and the result carries the randomness of real NBA games (a spread of 13.9 points). A game level after regulation goes to overtime, which counts as zero in the point-differential tiebreaker. Group standings use the league's tiebreakers in order, the bracket seeds group winners one to three and the wild card fourth, and the whole competition is played 100,000 times. Injuries, trades and signings since last season are not in the model.