Forty points is the oldest target in English football, the number managers name in August and supporters count down to in March. We checked it against every final table since 1995-96, when the league went to 20 clubs and 38 games, then ran the Vertize Premier League simulator forward through the rest of 2026-27 to see where this season's line is likely to fall.
How many points to avoid relegation: the history
The team in 18th has finished with as many as 42 points, West Ham in 2002-03, and as few as 25, Leicester in 2024-25. The median is 34 and the average 34.7. The team in 17th, the last one safe, averaged 38.
Put the other way round, here is how often each total would have been enough, counting only the seasons in which it beats the team in 18th outright. A team level on points with 18th can still survive on goal difference, so these shares are the safe side of the answer.
| Points | Enough to stay up | Share of seasons |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | 16 of 31 | 52% |
| 36 | 18 of 31 | 58% |
| 37 | 23 of 31 | 74% |
| 38 | 24 of 31 | 77% |
| 39 | 26 of 31 | 84% |
| 40 | 28 of 31 | 90% |
| 41 | 30 of 31 | 97% |
| 42 | 30 of 31 | 97% |
| 43 | 31 of 31 | 100% |
Thirty-eight points kept a team up in 24 of the 31 seasons, 40 in 28 and 41 in 30. Only one total has been enough every time: 43, one more than West Ham's 42.
Has anyone been relegated with 40 points?
Three times, all of them more than twenty years ago. Sunderland went down with 40 in 1996-97 and Bolton with 40 on goal difference in 1997-98. Then came West Ham in 2002-03, relegated with 42 points and a squad that had finished seventh the year before, the most points any team has taken down with it in the 20-club era.
At the other end, two teams have survived on fewer than 35. West Brom stayed up with 34 in 2004-05, the season they were bottom at Christmas, and Nottingham Forest with 32 in 2023-24, a total that includes a four-point deduction: on the pitch they earned 36. That season Everton finished 15th with 40 despite losing eight points to sanctions of their own.
Is 40 points still the target?
Less than it used to be. The relegation line averaged 36.5 points in the first ten seasons of the 20-team league, 35.1 in the next ten and 32.6 in the last eleven. The two seasons before last set the lowest lines on record: Luton went down in 18th with 26 in 2023-24 and Leicester with 25 in 2024-25, so a team with 27 points would have survived both.
The main reason is the promoted clubs. Of the 42 of 90 teams promoted since 1996-97 that went straight back down, the six from 2023-24 and 2024-25 went down together, the first time since 1997-98 that all three promoted teams were relegated in the same season, and they finished far below the usual line. When the bottom three are that far adrift, 18th place needs very few points.
Last season was the exception. Sunderland, promoted in 2025, finished seventh, and West Ham went down with 39 points, the most for a relegated side since 2002-03, level with Birmingham and Blackpool in 2010-11. Tottenham stayed up in 17th with 41. One season with a high line is a reminder that the target moves with the teams at the bottom, not with a rule of thumb.
The 2026-27 relegation race
Five matchdays in, the Premier League table has Tottenham and Fulham at the bottom with two points each and Coventry in 18th with three. The simulations see it differently: the three promoted clubs are the main candidates to go down, because the model rates teams on last season's finish and the market value of their squads, and all three are far below everyone else on both.
| Team | Points now | Relegated in simulations |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 8 | 97% |
| Coventry City | 3 | 86% |
| Ipswich Town | 6 | 61% |
| Fulham | 2 | 19% |
| Crystal Palace | 4 | 12% |
| Nottingham Forest | 5 | 11% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 5% |
| Leeds United | 9 | 4% |
| Everton | 9 | 2% |
| Sunderland | 4 | 1% |
The model's boldest call is Hull. They are eighth with eight points, and it still sends them down 97% of the time: their squad is valued at a small fraction of anyone else's, and the model expects the rest of their season to look like it. The eight points are real and counted; what the model doubts is the pace. Coventry go down in 86% of simulations and Ipswich in 61%. Tottenham, bottom on goal difference with a squad valued among the league's most expensive, go down in only 5%.
Across all 20,000 simulated seasons, the team in 18th finishes with a median of 33 points, and 38 is enough to stay up in 90% of them. Forty points, the old target, is safe in 97%. If the promoted teams struggle the way the model expects, a total in the mid-30s will be enough again; if one of them holds on the way Sunderland did, the line goes back up toward 40.
Premier League relegation rules
- The bottom three clubs are relegated to the Championship. They are replaced by the Championship's top two and the winner of its play-offs, which from 2026-27 take the teams from third to eighth instead of third to sixth.
- Clubs level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then the points and away goals in their matches against each other. If they are still level and the place decides relegation, they play off at a neutral ground.
- Points deductions for breaking the league's rules count in the final table, as they did for Everton and Nottingham Forest in 2023-24 and for Portsmouth, docked nine points on the way to finishing bottom in 2009-10.
Premier League relegation: frequently asked questions
How many points do you need to avoid relegation in the Premier League? About 35 on average: the team in 18th has averaged 34.7 points since 1995-96. Forty points has been enough in 28 of 31 seasons, and 43 in all of them.
Has a team been relegated with 40 points? Yes, three times: Sunderland in 1996-97 and Bolton in 1997-98 with 40, and West Ham with 42 in 2002-03, the highest total for a relegated team in a 38-game season.
What is the lowest points total to stay up? Thirty-two, by Nottingham Forest in 2023-24 after a four-point deduction. The lowest without a deduction is West Brom's 34 in 2004-05.
What is the fewest points in a Premier League season? Eleven, by Derby County in 2007-08, who won one game all season.
How often do promoted teams go straight back down? Almost half the time: 42 of the 90 clubs promoted since 1996-97 were relegated in their first season back, including all six in 2023-24 and 2024-25.
How this was built: final tables from ESPN for 2002-03 onward. The seven seasons before that are rebuilt match by match from the results published by football-data.co.uk, with Middlesbrough's three-point deduction of 1996-97; rebuilding 2002-03 the same way reproduces ESPN's table exactly. Point deductions count as in the official tables. A total counts as enough when it beats the team in 18th on points. The 2026-27 simulation plays the 330 remaining matches 20,000 times with the model of the Vertize simulator: goals drawn from a Poisson distribution, 1.50 at home and 1.25 away between equal sides, with each team rated on last season's finish and its squad's market value, and promoted clubs starting as the second-weakest side.