We rebuilt every series from the 1984 playoffs, the first with eight teams per conference, to the 2026 Finals, 3,375 games in all, from NBA.com's official game logs, tracking the series score after every game. The first round was best-of-five until it became best-of-seven in 2003; every other round has been best-of-seven throughout.
NBA Game 1 winner series record, round by round
Game 1 winners have won 496 series and lost 149. Their edge was biggest in the best-of-five first rounds of 1984 to 2002, 84 percent, when the loser of the opener had to win three of the next four. Among the best-of-seven rounds it was highest in the conference finals, 83 percent, and lowest in the Finals, 29 of 43, or 67 percent.
| Round | Series | Game 1 winner won | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| First round, best-of-five (1984-2002) | 152 | 127 | 84% |
| First round, best-of-seven (2003-2026) | 192 | 145 | 76% |
| Conference semifinals | 172 | 124 | 72% |
| Conference finals | 86 | 71 | 83% |
| Finals | 43 | 29 | 67% |
| All best-of-seven series | 493 | 369 | 75% |
| All series | 645 | 496 | 77% |
NBA.com's all-time count of best-of-seven series, through the 2017 playoffs, is close to ours: Game 1 winners won the series 76.6 percent of the time, 85.4 percent after a home win and 52.6 percent after a road win.
NBA Game 1 winners at home and on the road
The team that hosts Game 1 has home-court advantage, and in all 645 series since 1984 it had a regular-season record at least as good as its opponent's. Leaving out 2020, when the playoffs were played at a single site without fans, home teams won 465 of 630 Game 1s, 74 percent.
Holding serve settles most series: teams that won Game 1 at home won 395 of 465, 85 percent. Road teams that stole it won 90 of 165, 55 percent, and 68 of 134 best-of-seven series, 51 percent.
The margin matters too: teams that won Game 1 by 20 points or more won 102 of 118 series, 86 percent, and those that won it by five or fewer 110 of 156, 71 percent.
NBA teams that lost Game 1 and won the series
In all, 149 teams have lost Game 1 and won the series since 1984, 23 percent. Where they lost it matters: a team that lost Game 1 at home still won the series 45 percent of the time, one that lost it on the road 15 percent.
Of the 43 champions since 1984, 26 lost at least one Game 1 on the way to the title and 14 lost Game 1 of the Finals, most recently the 2025 Oklahoma City Thunder, beaten 111-110 at home by the Indiana Pacers. Seventeen won all four of their Game 1s, the latest the 2026 New York Knicks.
NBA playoff series comebacks from 0-2, and what each lead is worth
In the 493 best-of-seven series since 1984, a 2-0 lead held 91 percent of the time and a 3-0 lead every time, while a Game 1 winner that lost Game 2 was back to a coin flip, 51 percent.
| Situation | Times | Won the series | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Won Game 1 | 493 | 369 | 75% |
| Up 2-0 | 291 | 266 | 91% |
| Won Game 1, lost Game 2 | 202 | 103 | 51% |
| Up 2-1 | 363 | 281 | 77% |
| Up 3-0 | 130 | 130 | 100% |
| Up 3-1 | 226 | 215 | 95% |
| Up 3-2 | 271 | 227 | 84% |
Teams down 0-2 have come back 25 times in 291 best-of-seven series, 9 percent, and five more won a best-of-five first round with three straight wins, the last the 2001 Dallas Mavericks against the Utah Jazz. These comebacks have become more common: teams up 2-0 won 93 percent of the time from 1984 to 2017 and 87 percent since, with four comebacks in 2021 alone. Three came in the Finals, by the 2006 Miami Heat, the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers and the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks.
| Year | Round | Came back from 0-2 | Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Conf. semifinals | Cleveland Cavaliers | Detroit Pistons |
| 2024 | Conf. semifinals | Indiana Pacers | New York Knicks |
| 2023 | First round | Golden State Warriors | Sacramento Kings |
| 2022 | Conf. semifinals | Dallas Mavericks | Phoenix Suns |
| 2021 | Finals | Milwaukee Bucks | Phoenix Suns |
| 2021 | Conf. semifinals | LA Clippers | Utah Jazz |
| 2021 | Conf. semifinals | Milwaukee Bucks | Brooklyn Nets |
| 2021 | First round | LA Clippers | Dallas Mavericks |
| 2019 | Conf. finals | Toronto Raptors | Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2018 | Conf. finals | Cleveland Cavaliers | Boston Celtics |
| 2017 | First round | Boston Celtics | Chicago Bulls |
| 2016 | Finals | Cleveland Cavaliers | Golden State Warriors |
| 2016 | First round | Portland Trail Blazers | LA Clippers |
| 2013 | First round | Memphis Grizzlies | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 2012 | Conf. finals | Oklahoma City Thunder | San Antonio Spurs |
| 2008 | Conf. semifinals | San Antonio Spurs | New Orleans Hornets |
| 2007 | Conf. finals | Cleveland Cavaliers | Detroit Pistons |
| 2007 | First round | Utah Jazz | Houston Rockets |
| 2006 | Finals | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks |
| 2005 | First round | Washington Wizards | Chicago Bulls |
| 2005 | First round | Dallas Mavericks | Houston Rockets |
| 2004 | Conf. semifinals | Los Angeles Lakers | San Antonio Spurs |
| 1995 | Conf. semifinals | Houston Rockets | Phoenix Suns |
| 1994 | Conf. semifinals | Houston Rockets | Phoenix Suns |
| 1993 | Conf. finals | Chicago Bulls | New York Knicks |
No NBA team has come back from 0-3: the 127 teams that led a best-of-seven series 3-0 through 2017, by NBA.com's count, all won it, and so have the 37 since. Comebacks from 1-3 are rare but real, 11 since 1984, two of them in the first round of 2026.
Game 1 has counted for less in hockey and baseball. In our count of every NHL series since 1919, Game 1 winners took 68 percent of best-of-seven series and teams up 2-0 86 percent; in the World Series since 1903, the Game 1 winner has won 63 percent of the time and teams up 2-0 82 percent.
NBA Finals Game 1 winner: 29 titles in 43
The Finals are where Game 1 has meant the least. Its winner has taken the title 29 times in 43 since 1984, 67 percent, the lowest share of any round. Home teams that won the opener won the title 24 times in 31; road teams that won it, 4 times in 11: the 1993 Chicago Bulls, the 1995 Houston Rockets, the 2004 Detroit Pistons and the 2026 Knicks.
The 2025 Pacers are the most recent Game 1 winners to lose the Finals. Before them, the 2022 Boston Celtics won the opener 120-108 at Golden State and lost in six games.
The NBA Game 1 winner percentage over time
Game 1 winners took 84 percent of series in the 1984 to 1993 playoffs and 82 percent from 1994 to 2003, then 73 percent from 2004 to 2013 and 69 percent from 2014 to 2023; over the last 10 postseasons they won 106 of 150, 71 percent. The end of the best-of-five first round is only part of it: in best-of-seven series alone, the rate fell from 83 percent before 2003 to 72 percent since.
Home court counts for less, too. Home teams won 67.5 percent of playoff games from 1984 to 1993 and 57.0 percent from 2024 to 2026, not far above the 55.5 percent they won in the 2025-26 regular season. Their share of Game 1s fell from 80 percent in the first decade to 65 percent from 2014 to 2023, leaving 2020 aside.
Game 1 in the 2026 NBA playoffs, and the 2026-27 season
Game 1 winners won 10 of the 15 series in the 2026 playoffs. The Knicks won all four of their openers, the last 105-95 in San Antonio, and beat the San Antonio Spurs in five games for their first title since 1973, the first team since the 2004 Pistons to win the Finals after taking Game 1 on the road. Five Game 1 winners went out:
- Denver Nuggets, first round: beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1, lost in six.
- Orlando Magic, first round: won Game 1 at the Detroit Pistons, the East's top seed, led 3-1 and lost in seven.
- Boston Celtics, first round: beat the Philadelphia 76ers 123-91 in Game 1, led 3-1 and lost in seven.
- Minnesota Timberwolves, conference semifinals: won Game 1 104-102 at San Antonio, lost in six.
- Detroit Pistons, conference semifinals: led the Cleveland Cavaliers 2-0 and lost in seven.
The Magic and the 76ers had come through the play-in tournament. Of the 24 teams that reached the first round that way from 2021 to 2026, six won Game 1 and four won the series, the 2026 76ers among them.
The 2026-27 regular season starts on Tuesday, October 20, and two of its three opening-night games are rematches of 2026 playoff series: the Knicks host the 76ers, whom they swept in the conference semifinals, and the Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder, whom they beat in the Western Conference finals. It ends on April 11, 2027. The NBA schedule has every game, the NBA simulator plays out the season from the real standings and marks the playoff and play-in places, and our study of the best regular-season record shows how often it has led to the title.
NBA Game 1 winners and 0-2 comebacks: frequently asked questions
How often does the Game 1 winner win an NBA playoff series? 77 percent of the time since 1984, 496 of 645 series, and 75 percent in best-of-seven series. After a home win in Game 1 the rate is 85 percent, after a road win 55 percent.
How many NBA teams have come back from 0-2 down? Twenty-five in best-of-seven series since 1984, out of 291 that trailed 0-2, plus five in best-of-five first rounds. The most recent was the 2026 Cleveland Cavaliers, against the Detroit Pistons.
Has an NBA team ever come back from 0-3? No. All 127 teams up 3-0 in a best-of-seven series through 2017, by NBA.com's count, won it, and so have the 37 since.
How often does the Game 1 winner win the NBA Finals? 29 times in 43 since 1984, 67 percent. The last Game 1 winner to lose the Finals was the 2025 Indiana Pacers.
How this was built: every NBA playoff game from 1984 to 2026, 3,375 in all, from NBA.com's official game logs, grouped into series by matchup and placed in rounds by counting back from the Finals; a series counts once at every score it reached. Home teams are the ones NBA.com lists, and the Game 1 host always hosted Game 2 and any deciding game. Home and road figures leave out the 15 series of 2020, played at one site. Every Finals result matches NBA.com's list of champions. Play-in games are not counted. The 2026-27 dates are from the official NBA schedule as of September 30, 2026.