To count them, we rebuilt all 802 best-of-seven series in NHL playoff history game by game from the league's own results, from the 1919 NHL final between the Montreal Canadiens and the Ottawa Senators to the 2026 Stanley Cup Final. The Final has been best-of-seven since 1939, and every round since 1987.
NHL 3-1 series comeback percentage, score by score
A 3-1 lead is close to decisive. The team in front has won 330 of the 362 series that reached that score, 91 percent, and only a 3-0 lead has held more often, 214 times in 218. Every other score leaves real room for a comeback: teams down 2-3 have won 20 percent of the time, teams down 0-2 14 percent and teams that lost Game 1 32 percent.
A 2-1 lead is worth little more than a 1-0 lead, 69 percent against 68 percent, while a 2-0 lead has held 86 percent of the time. Breaking a tie counts for more late than early: the team that wins Game 3 at 1-1 takes the series 66 percent of the time, and the one that wins Game 5 at 2-2 80 percent, the same as any team leading 3-2.
| Series score | Series | Team ahead won | Team behind won | Comeback rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leads 1-0 | 802 | 546 | 256 | 32% |
| Leads 2-0 | 424 | 366 | 58 | 14% |
| Leads 2-1 | 584 | 403 | 181 | 31% |
| Leads 3-0 | 218 | 214 | 4 | 2% |
| Leads 3-1 | 362 | 330 | 32 | 9% |
| Leads 3-2 | 468 | 374 | 94 | 20% |
| Wins Game 3 at 1-1 | 378 | 251 | 127 | 34% |
| Wins Game 5 at 2-2 | 307 | 245 | 62 | 20% |
What winning Game 1 is worth in an NHL series
Game 1 winners have won 546 of the 802 series, 68 percent, and the edge has shrunk over time: 75 percent before 1987, 65 percent since every round went to seven games. In the Stanley Cup Final, the Game 1 winner has lifted the Cup 65 times in 87 since 1939, 75 percent, but 26 times in 39 since 1987, 67 percent.
Every NHL team that came back from 3-1 down
Thirty of the 32 comebacks came in 1987 or later. Before that, in 87 series that reached 3-1, only two teams came back, and both had lost the first three games: the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 1975 New York Islanders. The comebacks peaked right after: from 1987 to 2004 the trailing team won 18 of the 121 series that reached 3-1, about one in seven, against 12 in 154 since 2006, about one in 13.
Most came early: 23 of the 32 in the first round, and only one in the Stanley Cup Final, Toronto's. Once a team that trailed 3-1 forces a Game 7, the odds are close to even, 32 wins in 66 such games, or 48 percent, and 17 of the 32 comebacks ended on the road. Six of the teams went on to win the Cup: Toronto in 1942, the Edmonton Oilers in 1990, the Pittsburgh Penguins in 1992, the New Jersey Devils in 2000, the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013 and the Kings in 2014.
The Montreal Canadiens, the New York Rangers and the Vancouver Canucks have come back from 3-1 three times each, and the 2003 Minnesota Wild are the only team to do it twice in one postseason. On the other side, the Washington Capitals have lost five series after leading 3-1, two of them to Pittsburgh, and the Penguins have lost four, two of them to the Rangers.
| Year | Round | Came back from 3-1 | Against | Game 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | First round | Florida Panthers | Boston Bruins | 4-3 OT, away |
| 2022 | First round | New York Rangers | Pittsburgh Penguins | 4-3 OT, home |
| 2021 | First round | Montreal Canadiens | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3-1, away |
| 2019 | First round | San Jose Sharks | Vegas Golden Knights | 5-4 OT, home |
| 2015 | Second round | New York Rangers | Washington Capitals | 2-1 OT, home |
| 2014 | Second round | New York Rangers | Pittsburgh Penguins | 2-1, away |
| 2014 | First round | Los Angeles Kings (from 3-0) | San Jose Sharks | 5-1, away |
| 2013 | Second round | Chicago Blackhawks | Detroit Red Wings | 2-1 OT, home |
| 2011 | First round | Tampa Bay Lightning | Pittsburgh Penguins | 1-0, away |
| 2010 | Second round | Philadelphia Flyers (from 3-0) | Boston Bruins | 4-3, away |
| 2010 | First round | Montreal Canadiens | Washington Capitals | 2-1, away |
| 2009 | First round | Washington Capitals | New York Rangers | 2-1, home |
| 2004 | First round | Montreal Canadiens | Boston Bruins | 2-0, away |
| 2003 | Second round | Minnesota Wild | Vancouver Canucks | 4-2, away |
| 2003 | First round | Vancouver Canucks | St. Louis Blues | 4-1, home |
| 2003 | First round | Minnesota Wild | Colorado Avalanche | 3-2 OT, away |
| 2000 | Conference final | New Jersey Devils | Philadelphia Flyers | 2-1, away |
| 1999 | First round | St. Louis Blues | Phoenix Coyotes | 1-0 OT, away |
| 1998 | First round | Edmonton Oilers | Colorado Avalanche | 4-0, away |
| 1995 | First round | Pittsburgh Penguins | Washington Capitals | 3-0, home |
| 1994 | First round | Vancouver Canucks | Calgary Flames | 4-3 OT, away |
| 1992 | First round | Vancouver Canucks | Winnipeg Jets | 5-0, home |
| 1992 | First round | Detroit Red Wings | Minnesota North Stars | 5-2, home |
| 1992 | First round | Pittsburgh Penguins | Washington Capitals | 3-1, away |
| 1991 | First round | St. Louis Blues | Detroit Red Wings | 3-2, home |
| 1990 | First round | Edmonton Oilers | Winnipeg Jets | 4-1, home |
| 1989 | First round | Los Angeles Kings | Edmonton Oilers | 6-3, home |
| 1988 | First round | Washington Capitals | Philadelphia Flyers | 5-4 OT, home |
| 1987 | Second round | Detroit Red Wings | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3-0, home |
| 1987 | First round | New York Islanders | Washington Capitals | 3-2 OT, away |
| 1975 | Quarterfinal | New York Islanders (from 3-0) | Pittsburgh Penguins | 1-0, away |
| 1942 | Final | Toronto Maple Leafs (from 3-0) | Detroit Red Wings | 3-1, home |
Reverse sweeps: the four NHL teams that came back from 3-0
Winning the first three games settles a series almost every time: teams that led 3-0 have won 214 of 218. The four reverse sweeps are the same four the NHL lists in its own notes:
- 1942 Stanley Cup Final: Toronto lost the first three games to the Detroit Red Wings, then won 4-3 in Detroit, 9-3 at home, 3-0 in Detroit and 3-1 at home in Game 7. It is still the only comeback from 3-0 in the Final.
- 1975 quarterfinal: the Islanders lost three to the Pittsburgh Penguins, then won 3-1, 4-2, 4-1 and, in Pittsburgh, 1-0 in Game 7.
- 2010 second round: the Philadelphia Flyers lost three to the Boston Bruins, won Game 4 in overtime and came back from three goals down in Game 7 in Boston to win it 4-3.
- 2014 first round: the Kings lost three to the San Jose Sharks, two by three goals or more, won the next four, the last 5-1 in San Jose, and went on to win the Stanley Cup.
Six more teams forced a Game 7 after losing the first three and then lost it. They were the Rangers against the Bruins in the 1939 semifinals, the Red Wings against Toronto in the 1945 Final, the Islanders against the Flyers in the 1975 semifinals, weeks after beating Pittsburgh, the Blackhawks against Vancouver and the Red Wings against San Jose in 2011, and the Oilers against Florida in the 2024 Final.
Game 7 home team record in the NHL
Home teams have won 118 of the 203 Game 7s in NHL history, 58 percent, and 13 of the 18 played in the Stanley Cup Final. That is a bigger edge than in the regular season, where the home team wins about 52 percent of NHL games, but it has not been steady.
From 1939 to 1967, home teams won 13 of 18 Game 7s. From 1968 to 1986 they split 26 evenly, and from 1987 to 2004 they won 47 of 72, 65 percent. Since 2006 they are 45-42, 52 percent, no better than a home team in a regular-season game.
No 3-1 comebacks since 2023: the 2026 playoffs and 2026-27
The 2026 playoffs did not add one. Five teams took 3-1 leads and all five won, as did all 19 that led 3-1 in 2024 and 2025. Three straight postseasons without a comeback from 3-1 tie the longest gap since 1987, matching 2006 to 2008 and 2016 to 2018. The last one, Florida's, came in overtime of Game 7 in Boston, against the Presidents' Trophy winner.
There were only two Game 7s in 2026, and the Montreal Canadiens won both on the road: 2-1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round and 3-2 in overtime against the Buffalo Sabres in the second, with Alex Newhook scoring both winners. The Carolina Hurricanes then beat Montreal in five games and won the Stanley Cup in six against the Vegas Golden Knights.
The 2026-27 regular season opened on Tuesday, September 29 with five games, the first a 1-0 overtime win for Florida at Carolina. Follow it on the NHL schedule, play it out in the NHL simulator, which marks the playoff places as results come in, and see how often the Presidents' Trophy winner wins the Cup.
NHL series comebacks: frequently asked questions
How many NHL teams have come back from 3-1 down? Thirty-two through the 2026 playoffs, out of 362 best-of-seven series that reached 3-1. Four had trailed 3-0 first, and the most recent was the 2023 Florida Panthers, against the Boston Bruins.
Has an NHL team ever come back from 3-0 down? Four times: the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1942 Stanley Cup Final, the New York Islanders in 1975, the Philadelphia Flyers in 2010 and the Los Angeles Kings in 2014. The other 214 teams that led 3-0 won.
What percentage of NHL teams win the series after leading 3-1? 91 percent, 330 of 362. Since 1987 the figure is 89 percent, with 30 comebacks in 275 series.
What is the home team's record in Game 7 in the NHL? 118-85 through the 2026 playoffs, 58 percent, and 13-5 in the Stanley Cup Final. Since 2006 it is 45-42.
How often does the team that wins Game 1 win an NHL series? 68 percent of the time: 546 of 802 best-of-seven series.
How this was built: all 5,110 NHL playoff games from 1918 to 2026, from the league's stats API, grouped into series by the round and series number in each game ID. The 802 series whose winner needed four wins, 4,549 games, are the best-of-seven ones. The series score is tracked game by game, skipping the one tie, 1-1 between Toronto and Boston in 1951, and a series counts once at every score it reached. Home teams are the ones the league designated, including in the three 2020 Game 7s in its two hub cities. Our Game 7 totals match NHL Stats' notes from June 2024, 115-82 for home teams in 197 games and 12-5 in the Final, and the 32 comebacks match Wikipedia's list.