We took the final regular-season ladder and every finals result of the 29 NRL seasons from NRL.com's ladder and draw, and counted how far each ladder position went. Results are counted as played on the field.
How often the NRL minor premiers win the grand final
The minor premiers reached the grand final 19 times in 29 seasons, 66 percent, and won 10 of those 19 grand finals. That is a better record than the NHL's best regular-season team, 8 Stanley Cups in 40 seasons, and a worse one than the NBA's, which won the title 45 percent of the time since 1979-80.
No minor premier has gone out in the first week of the finals, because both finals systems used since 1999 give the top team a second chance. Eight lost a preliminary final, and two lost twice and went out in week 2: the St. George Illawarra Dragons in 2009 and the Canberra Raiders in 2025.
One asterisk hangs over the count. In April 2010 the NRL stripped the Melbourne Storm of the 2007 and 2009 premierships and the 2006, 2007 and 2008 minor premierships over salary cap breaches. Melbourne won the 2007 grand final as minor premiers; leaving out those three withheld minor premierships, the official count is 9 premierships from 26 minor premiers.
The last three minor premiers have all missed out: the Storm lost the 2024 grand final to Penrith, Canberra went out in straight sets in 2025, and Penrith fell a game short in 2026. The last team to finish first and win the premiership was Penrith in 2023.
NRL premiers by ladder position since 1998
Every one of the 29 premiers finished in the top four: 10 first, eight second, six third and five fourth. The top two won 18 of the 29 titles, 62 percent. Teams from fifth to eighth have played in eight grand finals and lost all eight, and in 1998, when the top 10 made the finals, the ninth-placed Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs reached the grand final and lost 38-12 to the Brisbane Broncos.
| Ladder position | Finals record | Win % | Preliminary finals | Grand finals | Premierships |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56-26 | 68.3% | 27 | 19 | 10 |
| 2nd | 45-32 | 58.4% | 22 | 15 | 8 |
| 3rd | 38-41 | 48.1% | 22 | 7 | 6 |
| 4th | 40-39 | 50.6% | 20 | 8 | 5 |
| 5th | 24-36 | 40.0% | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| 6th | 25-31 | 44.6% | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 7th | 24-29 | 45.3% | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| 8th | 9-29 | 23.7% | 3 | 2 | 0 |
The higher-placed team won 167 of the 265 finals, 63 percent. Below the top two, the record by position does not fall in a straight line: seventh-placed teams have won 45.3 percent of their finals, more than fifth (40.0) or sixth (44.6).
How the NRL finals system works: the top-four double chance
From 1999 to 2011 the NRL used the McIntyre final eight: first played eighth, second played seventh, third played sixth and fourth played fifth, and the results decided who got a week off and who went home. Only the top two were sure of a second chance.
Since 2012 the eight split in two in week 1. First plays fourth and second plays third in the qualifying finals; the winners get a week off and host the preliminary finals, and the losers play again in week 2. Fifth plays eighth and sixth plays seventh in the elimination finals, and the losers are out. In all 15 seasons the draw shows exactly those pairings.
The double chance has worked as designed. Since 2012 the top four have filled 51 of the 60 preliminary final places, 85 percent, and 27 of the 30 grand final places. Fifth to eighth reached the grand final three times, all as losers: the Bulldogs from seventh in 2014, the North Queensland Cowboys from eighth in 2017 and the Knights from seventh in 2026. Under the McIntyre system they had made five grand finals in 13 seasons.
The second chance has also saved premiers. Of the 30 top-four teams that lost their qualifying final since 2012, three went on to win the premiership:
- 2015 Cowboys, third: lost 16-12 to the Broncos in week 1, then beat them 17-16 in the grand final.
- 2021 Panthers, second: lost 16-10 to the South Sydney Rabbitohs in week 1, then beat them 14-12 in the grand final.
- 2026 Roosters, fourth: lost 19-12 to Penrith in week 1, then won three finals in a row.
| Season | Minor premiers | W-L-D | How it ended | Premiers (position) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 18-6-0 | Lost the grand final | Melbourne Storm (2nd) |
| 2013 | Sydney Roosters | 18-6-0 | Won the grand final | Sydney Roosters (1st) |
| 2014 | Sydney Roosters | 16-8-0 | Lost a preliminary final | South Sydney Rabbitohs (3rd) |
| 2015 | Sydney Roosters | 18-6-0 | Lost a preliminary final | North Queensland Cowboys (3rd) |
| 2016 | Melbourne Storm | 19-5-0 | Lost the grand final | Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (3rd) |
| 2017 | Melbourne Storm | 20-4-0 | Won the grand final | Melbourne Storm (1st) |
| 2018 | Sydney Roosters | 16-8-0 | Won the grand final | Sydney Roosters (1st) |
| 2019 | Melbourne Storm | 20-4-0 | Lost a preliminary final | Sydney Roosters (2nd) |
| 2020 | Penrith Panthers | 18-1-1 | Lost the grand final | Melbourne Storm (2nd) |
| 2021 | Melbourne Storm | 21-3-0 | Lost a preliminary final | Penrith Panthers (2nd) |
| 2022 | Penrith Panthers | 20-4-0 | Won the grand final | Penrith Panthers (1st) |
| 2023 | Penrith Panthers | 18-6-0 | Won the grand final | Penrith Panthers (1st) |
| 2024 | Melbourne Storm | 19-5-0 | Lost the grand final | Penrith Panthers (2nd) |
| 2025 | Canberra Raiders | 19-5-0 | Out in week 2 | Brisbane Broncos (4th) |
| 2026 | Penrith Panthers | 18-6-0 | Lost a preliminary final | Sydney Roosters (4th) |
The 2026 NRL minor premiers and grand final
Penrith and the New Zealand Warriors both finished 2026 with 18 wins and 42 points, and the ladder went to Penrith on points differential, +336 to +310. Penrith beat the Roosters 19-12 at CommBank Stadium in week 1, had the week off, and lost the preliminary final 22-14 to the Knights at Accor Stadium. The Warriors lost to the Dolphins and then 12-10 to Newcastle at Eden Park.
| Pos. | Team | W-L | Pts | Diff. | Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penrith Panthers | 18-6 | 42 | +336 | Lost a preliminary final |
| 2 | New Zealand Warriors | 18-6 | 42 | +310 | Lost in week 2 |
| 3 | Dolphins | 17-7 | 40 | +156 | Lost a preliminary final |
| 4 | Sydney Roosters | 16-8 | 38 | +118 | Won the grand final |
| 5 | Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 14-10 | 34 | +149 | Lost in week 2 |
| 6 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 14-10 | 34 | +113 | Lost in week 1 |
| 7 | Newcastle Knights | 14-10 | 34 | +42 | Lost the grand final |
| 8 | North Queensland Cowboys | 13-11 | 32 | -84 | Lost in week 1 |
The Roosters, 16-8 and fourth, beat the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 46-10 and the Dolphins 36-20 in Brisbane to reach the grand final. Newcastle, 14-10 and seventh, were the lowest-placed grand finalists since the Cowboys in 2017, after three straight wins as the lower-placed team.
In the grand final at Accor Stadium, which kicked off at 7:30 pm AEDT, the Knights led 12-6 at half-time, and a Daly Cherry-Evans field goal with 10 minutes left gave the Roosters a 19-18 win, their first premiership since 2019, in front of 80,814. James Tedesco won the Clive Churchill Medal. The Roosters are the fifth team since 1998 to win the grand final from fourth, and the second in a row after the Broncos in 2025.
What changes in 2027: an 18-team NRL
The 2026 ladder had 17 clubs. The Perth Bears enter the NRL from the 2027 season, with home games at HBF Park, which makes 18. The finals have been a top-eight series since 1999, and with an 18th club a top-four finish, where every premier since 1998 has come from, means finishing ahead of 14 rivals instead of 13.
The NRL ladder on Vertize shows byes, points differential and the top eight through the season, and the NRL ladder predictor lets you tip every game left and see where each club would finish.
NRL minor premiers and the finals: frequently asked questions
How often do the NRL minor premiers win the grand final? 10 times in the 29 seasons from 1998 to 2026, 34 percent, counting results as played. They reached the grand final 19 times.
What is the lowest ladder position to win an NRL premiership? Fourth, five times since 1998: the Roosters in 2002 and 2026, the Wests Tigers in 2005, the Storm in 2009, later stripped, and the Broncos in 2025.
Do the top four get a second chance in the NRL finals? Yes. Since 2012 the losers of the two qualifying finals, first against fourth and second against third, play again in week 2, and no top-four team has gone out in the first week.
Who were the 2026 NRL minor premiers? The Penrith Panthers, 18-6, ahead of the Warriors on points differential. They lost the preliminary final to Newcastle.
Who won the 2026 NRL grand final? The Sydney Roosters, 19-18 over the Newcastle Knights at Accor Stadium on 4 October 2026.
How this was built: the final regular-season ladder and every finals game of the 29 NRL seasons from 1998 to 2026, 265 games, from the public data behind NRL.com's ladder and draw pages, downloaded on 4 October 2026 after the 2026 grand final. Ladder positions are the official ones, with points penalties applied, and results are counted as played, including the two Melbourne premierships later withdrawn. The 1998 season used a top-10 finals series; the tables count positions one to eight.