The Christmas table is quoted every December as a guide to May. We rebuilt the table as it stood on 25 December in every season of the 20-club league, game by game from the results published by football-data.co.uk, and set it against the final standings. For every season through 2024-25, our list of Christmas leaders matches the Premier League's own.
How often the team top at Christmas wins the Premier League
Sixteen of the 31 Christmas leaders went on to win the title, 52 percent. The champion was rarely far away, though: it was first or second on Christmas Day in 23 of the 31 seasons, and only four champions came from outside the top four, all of them with a game in hand.
The size of the lead makes the difference at both ends. No team that was level on points or one point clear at Christmas has won the title: five tried, from Manchester United in 2003-04 to Arsenal in 2023-24. Leaders with six points or more held on five times out of six. In between it was close to a coin flip, with 11 of 20 leaders turning a two- to five-point lead into the title.
| Lead at Christmas | Leaders | Won the title | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level or 1 point | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| 2 or 3 points | 12 | 7 | 58% |
| 4 or 5 points | 8 | 4 | 50% |
| 6 points or more | 6 | 5 | 83% |
| All leaders | 31 | 16 | 52% |
The leaders who won the title were 4.9 points clear at Christmas on average, and the ones who did not were 2.9 clear. A lead in points can also hide a rival's games in hand. In 2008-09 Manchester United were fourth at Christmas, seven points behind Liverpool with two games in hand, and won the league.
The Christmas leaders who did not win the title
Fifteen leaders missed out. Manchester United won seven of those titles from behind, Manchester City five and Arsenal three.
Newcastle United's 1995-96 season is still the biggest lead lost since the league went to 20 clubs: ten points clear of Manchester United on Christmas Day, four points behind them in May. The longest climb in that time belongs to Arsenal in 1997-98, sixth at Christmas and 13 points behind United with a game in hand, champions by a point. Aston Villa fell furthest, from first at Christmas 1998 to sixth.
The most recent exceptions came close together. Liverpool led by four points at Christmas 2018 and lost the title by a point despite finishing with 97. They led by four again in 2020, with Manchester City eighth and eight points back with a game in hand, and finished third. Arsenal were top at Christmas in 2022-23 and 2023-24 and finished second to City both times. In 2022-23 the table had not moved since 13 November, when the league stopped for the World Cup in Qatar.
| Season | Top at Christmas | Lead | Finished | Champion | Champion at Christmas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Arsenal | 1 point | 2nd | Manchester City | 5th, 6 back |
| 2022-23 | Arsenal | 5 points | 2nd | Manchester City | 2nd, 5 back |
| 2020-21 | Liverpool | 4 points | 3rd | Manchester City | 8th, 8 back |
| 2018-19 | Liverpool | 4 points | 2nd | Manchester City | 2nd, 4 back |
| 2013-14 | Liverpool | Level | 2nd | Manchester City | 3rd, 1 back |
| 2008-09 | Liverpool | 1 point | 2nd | Manchester United | 4th, 7 back |
| 2007-08 | Arsenal | 1 point | 3rd | Manchester United | 2nd, 1 back |
| 2003-04 | Manchester United | 1 point | 3rd | Arsenal | 2nd, 1 back |
| 2002-03 | Arsenal | 2 points | 2nd | Manchester United | 3rd, 4 back |
| 2001-02 | Newcastle United | 3 points | 4th | Arsenal | 2nd, 3 back |
| 1999-00 | Leeds United | 2 points | 3rd | Manchester United | 2nd, 2 back |
| 1998-99 | Aston Villa | 3 points | 6th | Manchester United | 3rd, 5 back |
| 1997-98 | Manchester United | 4 points | 2nd | Arsenal | 6th, 13 back |
| 1996-97 | Liverpool | 3 points | 4th | Manchester United | 5th, 7 back |
| 1995-96 | Newcastle United | 10 points | 2nd | Manchester United | 2nd, 10 back |
Which clubs turn a Christmas lead into the title
Chelsea have been top at Christmas five times and won the league every time, and Manchester City are three for three. Since 1995-96, Liverpool have spent the most Christmases on top, seven, but turned only two of them into titles, in 2019-20 and 2024-25. Arsenal missed out four times before last season, when they were two points clear of City on Christmas Day and went on to win the league with 85 points, seven more than City.
| Club | Top at Christmas | Won the title | Titles as Christmas leader |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 7 | 2 | 2019-20, 2024-25 |
| Manchester United | 6 | 4 | 2000-01, 2006-07, 2010-11, 2012-13 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 5 | 2004-05, 2005-06, 2009-10, 2014-15, 2016-17 |
| Arsenal | 5 | 1 | 2025-26 |
| Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 2011-12, 2017-18, 2021-22 |
| Newcastle United | 2 | 0 | None |
| Leicester City | 1 | 1 | 2015-16 |
| Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | None |
| Leeds United | 1 | 0 | None |
Manchester City have won eight titles since 1995-96, only three of them from first place at Christmas; four of the other five came in the last eight seasons.
Bottom at Christmas: how often the last-placed club goes down
The club in last place on Christmas Day was relegated in 27 of 31 seasons, 87 percent. Four escaped, and all four had exactly 10 points on 25 December:
- West Bromwich Albion, 2004-05: 10 points from 18 games, five from safety. They finished 17th with 34 points, one more than Crystal Palace.
- Sunderland, 2013-14: 10 points from 17 games. They finished 14th with 38.
- Leicester City, 2014-15: 10 points from 17 games. They finished 14th with 41, and a year later they were top at Christmas and won the league.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, 2022-23: 10 points from 15 games when the league stopped for the World Cup. They finished 13th with 41.
The fewest points for the bottom club at Christmas since 1995-96 is two, by Sheffield United in 2020-21 and by Wolves last season. Wolves had played 17 games, were 16 points behind the team in 17th and went down in 20th place.
Above the bottom club the picture blurs quickly. The team in 19th at Christmas went down 18 times in 31 seasons and the team in 18th 13 times, no more often than the team in 17th, just above the line. Of the 93 clubs in the bottom three at Christmas, 58 were relegated, 62 percent. At least one of the three went down every season, and all three did in five: 2001-02, 2012-13, 2020-21, 2023-24 and 2025-26.
That leaves 35 relegated clubs that were outside the bottom three at Christmas, one of them as high as 10th: Blackpool in 2010-11, who had 22 points from 16 games on Christmas Day and went down with 39. How many points it has taken to stay up in May, season by season, is in our look at the Premier League relegation line.
Who is top of the Premier League now: 2026-27 so far
Five rounds into 2026-27, Manchester City top the Premier League table with five wins from five, 15 points, three more than Arsenal and five more than Brighton & Hove Albion. A perfect start is a good sign, but a weaker one than a Christmas lead. Thirteen teams had won their first five games since 1995-96: five of them were top at Christmas and four won the title, most recently City in 2023-24, who were only fifth on Christmas Day. Liverpool won their first five last season and finished fifth.
At the bottom, Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham have two points each, with Tottenham last on goal difference. The club bottom after five games has gone down in 18 of 31 seasons, a much weaker signal than the Christmas table.
Christmas is still almost three months away, and the Premier League fixtures list every game between now and then. To play the season out yourself, put a score on any game still to come in the Vertize Premier League simulator, or let the model fill in the rest, and the table rebuilds as you go.
Top at Christmas: frequently asked questions
Does the team top at Christmas usually win the Premier League? Just over half the time: 16 of the 31 Christmas leaders since 1995-96 won the title, 52 percent. The Premier League's own count, including the three 22-club seasons from 1992-93, was 17 of 33 before Arsenal won it from first place last season; across the English top flight's 126 seasons before 2025-26, Opta Analyst counted 56, 44 percent.
Who was top of the Premier League at Christmas last season? Arsenal, two points ahead of Manchester City, and they went on to win the title with 85 points.
What is the biggest Christmas lead to be lost? Since 1995-96, ten points, by Newcastle United that season. Manchester United, second at Christmas, won the league by four points.
Has a team bottom at Christmas ever stayed up? Four times since 1995-96: West Brom in 2004-05, Sunderland in 2013-14, Leicester City in 2014-15 and Wolves in 2022-23. The other 27 were relegated.
Who has come from furthest behind at Christmas to win the title? Since 1995-96, Arsenal in 1997-98, sixth on Christmas Day and 13 points behind Manchester United with a game in hand. The lowest place a champion has been at Christmas is eighth, by Manchester City in 2020-21.
How this was built: every Premier League table from 1995-96 to 2025-26 rebuilt as it stood on 25 December, from the results of all 11,780 games published by football-data.co.uk. The table counts every game played on or before that date, and none of the 31 seasons had a game on Christmas Day. Teams are ranked on points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions count from the day they were imposed: Everton's 10 points of 17 November 2023 are in that season's Christmas table, while Middlesbrough's three points of 14 January 1997, Portsmouth's nine of 17 March 2010, Nottingham Forest's four of 18 March 2024 and the later changes to Everton's sanction (cut to six, then two more) are not. Rebuilt the same way, the final tables match the official ones for all 31 seasons. The 2026-27 table covers the 50 games played through 20 September 2026, and the table after five games counts each team's first five.