We matched every NFL game since 1999, playoffs included, to its kickoff conditions: roof or open air and, outdoors, the temperature and wind in the league's game feed as published in nflverse's play-by-play data, with scores from the nflverse games file. That is 7,355 games through Week 5 of 2026, 5,516 of them outdoors; only 384 kicked off at 32 degrees or colder, and 86 below 20.
NFL scoring in domes vs outdoors
A roof is worth more points than any temperature. Games in domes and closed retractable roofs averaged 47.0 points, both teams combined, against 43.4 in the open air, and indoor games outscored outdoor ones in 26 of the 27 seasons from 1999 to 2025; 2018 was the exception.
Part of that gap is who plays indoors, so we compared each game with the points both teams scored and allowed in their other games that season. Indoor games came out 1.7 points above that expectation and outdoor games 0.5 below, a 2.2-point difference, and passer rating is 90.7 indoors against 84.6 outside. For scale, teams averaged 23.0 points each in 2025.
Does cold weather lower NFL scoring?
Much less than its reputation. Open-air games at 20 to 32 degrees averaged 44.0 points, more than games at 70 degrees or warmer (43.2) and 0.3 above what the teams' season scoring predicted. Only below 20 degrees does scoring fall clearly, to 41.6 points in 86 games, 3.3 below expectation.
| Conditions | Games | Points per game | Vs. expected | Passer rating | FG% from 40+ yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dome or closed roof | 1,839 | 47.0 | +1.7 | 90.7 | 74.2% |
| Open air, 70°F or warmer | 1,589 | 43.2 | −0.6 | 86.0 | 70.0% |
| Open air, 50 to 69°F | 2,309 | 43.8 | −0.1 | 85.1 | 70.5% |
| Open air, 33 to 49°F | 1,227 | 42.9 | −1.0 | 82.7 | 67.6% |
| Open air, 20 to 32°F | 298 | 44.0 | +0.3 | 82.7 | 63.3% |
| Open air, below 20°F | 86 | 41.6 | −3.3 | 80.4 | 70.6% |
Passing slips as it gets colder: completion rate falls from 62.2 percent at 70 degrees or warmer to 59.5 below 20, and teams pass on 57.2 percent of snaps instead of 60.2. Fumbles do not rise, 2.2 a game in both. From 2015 to 2025 alone, the passer rating was 94.1 under a roof and 86.5 in freezing games.
Does wind affect NFL scoring more than cold?
Yes, and steadily. Games with wind under 10 mph at kickoff averaged 44.3 points; 10 to 14 mph, 42.6; 15 to 19 mph, 40.4; 20 mph or more, 39.9, about 3.5 points below what the teams' season scoring predicted.
Cold makes wind worse. Freezing games with winds of 15 mph or more averaged 37.5 points, 6.4 below expectation, in 85 games; with wind under 10 mph, freezing games averaged 45.1. At 50 degrees or warmer, the same winds cost about 2.0 points. The coldest games are also windier: below 20 degrees, 46 of the 86 had winds of 10 mph or more, and the 40 with lighter wind came out only 1.5 points below expectation.
| Wind at kickoff | Games | Points per game | Vs. expected | Passer rating | FG% from 40+ yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10 mph | 3,493 | 44.3 | +0.3 | 85.9 | 70.7% |
| 10 to 14 mph | 1,312 | 42.6 | −1.0 | 83.9 | 68.3% |
| 15 to 19 mph | 508 | 40.4 | −3.3 | 79.1 | 64.3% |
| 20 mph or more | 191 | 39.9 | −3.5 | 79.3 | 63.9% |
NFL field goal percentage in cold weather and wind
From 2015 to 2025, the seasons since the extra point moved back to the 15-yard line:
- 50 yards or more: 69.5 percent made indoors, 65.2 outdoors at 50 degrees or warmer and 56.7 at 32 or colder, on 67 tries.
- 40 to 49 yards: 81.4, 77.5 and 75.5 percent.
- Winds of 15 mph or more: 59.1 percent from 50 yards or more, on 115 tries.
- Extra points: 95.4 percent indoors, 94.5 in wind under 10 mph and 89.6 in winds of 20 mph or more, on 221 tries.
Do dome teams struggle in cold weather?
We sorted every team, each season, by where it plays at home:
- Dome teams play most home games under a fixed or retractable roof: in 2026, the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints.
- Warm-weather teams play outdoors where December and January kickoffs averaged 50 degrees or more: the Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and earlier teams such as the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers.
- Cold-weather teams are the other 16, from the Green Bay Packers (26.6 degrees on average) to the Tennessee Titans (46.9).
In regular-season road games at 32 degrees or colder, dome teams went 25-38-1, 39.8 percent, against 43.9 percent in their other road games. But the hosts on those days were usually good teams: from both sides' point differentials in their other games, dome teams were expected to win about 27, or 42.0 percent. Visiting cold-weather teams fell short by a similar margin, 73 wins against about 75.
Warm-weather teams are the exception. They went 18-50 in freezing road games, 26.5 percent, about 8 wins fewer than expected, a gap about twice what chance alone typically produces in 68 games. In their other road games they won 39.5 percent, against 41.6 expected.
In the playoffs, where seeding and tiebreakers usually give the stronger team home field, dome teams have won 5 of 21 freezing road games, against 7.6 expected; the Houston Texans are 1-5 in them. Warm-weather teams have won 5 of 14 (5.7 expected) and cold-weather teams 16 of 44 (16.5).
Home-field advantage in cold NFL games
Home teams won 188 of 305 regular-season games played at 32 degrees or colder, with one tie: 61.8 percent, against 56.3 percent for all home games from 1999 to 2025. The hosts were usually the better side, and their records predicted 58.1 percent. The rest, about 11 extra wins in 305 games, is an edge, but not one large enough to rule out chance.
- By temperature: 55.1 percent at 70 degrees or warmer, 56.4 at 50 to 69, 57.8 at 33 to 49, 63.0 at 20 to 32 and 57.5 below 20, in 67 games.
- By wind: 54.9 percent at 20 mph or more.
- Playoffs: 53-26 in freezing games, 67.1 percent, against 64.4 in all Wild Card, Divisional and conference championship games.
The coldest NFL games since 1999
Three playoff games since 1999 kicked off below zero. The Seattle Seahawks won 10-9 at the Minnesota Vikings in January 2016 at minus 6 degrees. On Jan. 13, 2024, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins 26-7 at minus 4, with a wind chill of minus 27, the fourth-coldest game in NFL history; only the 1967 NFL Championship Game (minus 13), the AFC Championship Game of the 1981 season (minus 9) and that Seahawks win were colder. The New York Giants won the NFC Championship Game at Green Bay in January 2008, in overtime, at minus 1.
| Date | Game | Round | Winner | Temp | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 10, 2016 | Seahawks at Vikings | Wild Card | Seahawks, 10-9 | −6°F | 12 mph |
| Jan. 13, 2024 | Dolphins at Chiefs | Wild Card | Chiefs, 26-7 | −4°F | 19 mph |
| Jan. 20, 2008 | Giants at Packers | NFC Championship | Giants, 23-20 (OT) | −1°F | 12 mph |
| Dec. 18, 2016 | Titans at Chiefs | Regular season | Titans, 19-17 | 1°F | 5 mph |
| Dec. 22, 2008 | Packers at Bears | Regular season | Bears, 20-17 (OT) | 2°F | 9 mph |
| Dec. 7, 2008 | Texans at Packers | Regular season | Texans, 24-21 | 3°F | 3 mph |
| Jan. 10, 2004 | Titans at Patriots | Divisional | Patriots, 17-14 | 4°F | 10 mph |
| Jan. 5, 2014 | 49ers at Packers | Wild Card | 49ers, 23-20 | 5°F | 10 mph |
| Dec. 24, 2022 | Saints at Browns | Regular season | Saints, 17-10 | 6°F | 26 mph |
| Jan. 15, 2022 | Patriots at Bills | Wild Card | Bills, 47-17 | 7°F | 7 mph |
Visitors won six of these ten, among them the dome-based Houston Texans at Green Bay at 3 degrees in 2008, the warm-weather 49ers there at 5 degrees in 2014 and the dome-based New Orleans Saints at Cleveland at 6 degrees, with a 26 mph wind, in 2022. Green Bay has hosted the most freezing games since 1999, 63, ahead of Kansas City's 38.
NFL cold weather games in 2026 so far
Through Week 5, which ended on Monday, Oct. 12, none of the 55 open-air games kicked off below 50 degrees; the coldest was 55, when the Las Vegas Raiders visited the New England Patriots on Oct. 11. That is normal: 344 of the 384 freezing games since 1999 came in December or January. Indoor games have averaged 49.3 points so far, outdoor games 45.5.
Every result and the remaining games are on the NFL schedule, and the Vertize NFL simulator lets you pick the results and play out the season, December road trips included.
NFL cold weather games: frequently asked questions
Do dome teams struggle in cold weather? A little, but no more than their opponents explain: 39.8 percent of freezing road games won since 1999, against 42.0 expected. Warm-weather open-air teams are 18-50.
Does cold weather lower NFL scoring? Only at the extreme. Games at 20 to 32 degrees averaged 44.0 points; below 20 degrees, 41.6.
Does wind matter more than cold? Yes. Games with winds of 15 mph or more averaged 40.3 points, against 44.3 with wind under 10 mph.
What is the coldest NFL game since 1999? The Seahawks' 10-9 Wild Card win at Minnesota on Jan. 10, 2016, at minus 6 degrees.
How this was built: every NFL regular-season and playoff game from 1999 through Week 5 of 2026, 7,355 in all, from the nflverse games file and play-by-play data. Indoor means a dome or a closed retractable roof. Temperature and wind are kickoff readings from the NFL's game feed, or from the games file where the feed has none, as in 1999 and 2000. The two agree from 2001 to 2020 but often differ in 2021 and 2022, when the games file misses 91 open-air games; using it first moves no temperature band by more than 0.1 points. Seven open-air games without a temperature and 12 without wind are left out of those cuts, and wind is one reading that can be wrong, such as the 71 mph listed in Pittsburgh in December 2016. Expected points and wins come from each team's other regular-season games that season; the win model matches all home results from 1999 to 2025 within 5 wins of 6,889 games. Home and road figures exclude neutral sites. Three games have no play-by-play.