We took the final order of every division from NFL.com's standings, tiebreakers included, for every season from 2002 to 2025, and followed each team into the next season. The same count shows how often champions repeat.
How often a last-place NFL team wins the division the next season
Last place is usually sticky. Of the 184 last-place teams from 2002 to 2024, 77 finished last again the following season, 42 percent; 42 moved up to third, 38 to second and 27 all the way to first. The Cleveland Browns hold the longest run at the bottom since 2002, last in the AFC North seven years in a row from 2011 to 2017.
Across the league, though, worst to first is close to an annual event. At least one team made it in 20 of the 23 seasons from 2003 to 2025, and two did in seven of them: 2003 to 2006, 2017, 2018 and 2025. The longest run came first, 11 straight seasons from 2003 to 2013. The only seasons without one were 2014, 2019 and 2024.
Worst to first in NFL history: all 27 teams
On average, the 27 won 4.5 games the year before and 10.7 the year they won the division, about six more, and every one added at least four wins. The biggest jumps belong to the 2025 Patriots, from 4-13 to 14-3, and the 2008 Miami Dolphins, from 1-15 to 11-5, 10 more wins each; the 2016 Dallas Cowboys added nine, from 4-12 to 13-3. Only one of the 27 won the division with a losing record: the 2020 Washington Football Team, at 7-9.
| Season | Team | Division | Year before | Record | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 8-8 | 13-3 | Lost divisional round |
| 2003 | Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 7-9 | 11-5 | Lost Super Bowl |
| 2004 | San Diego Chargers | AFC West | 4-12 | 12-4 | Lost wild card round |
| 2004 | Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 5-11 | 11-5 | Lost conference championship |
| 2005 | Chicago Bears | NFC North | 5-11 | 11-5 | Lost divisional round |
| 2005 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 5-11 | 11-5 | Lost wild card round |
| 2006 | Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 6-10 | 10-6 | Lost divisional round |
| 2006 | New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 3-13 | 10-6 | Lost conference championship |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 4-12 | 9-7 | Lost wild card round |
| 2008 | Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 1-15 | 11-5 | Lost wild card round |
| 2009 | New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 8-8 | 13-3 | Won Super Bowl |
| 2010 | Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 4-12 | 10-6 | Lost wild card round |
| 2011 | Denver Broncos | AFC West | 4-12 | 8-8 | Lost divisional round |
| 2012 | Washington | NFC East | 5-11 | 10-6 | Lost wild card round |
| 2013 | Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 4-12 | 10-6 | Lost wild card round |
| 2015 | Washington | NFC East | 4-12 | 9-7 | Lost wild card round |
| 2016 | Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 4-12 | 13-3 | Lost divisional round |
| 2017 | Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 3-13 | 10-6 | Lost conference championship |
| 2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 7-9 | 13-3 | Won Super Bowl |
| 2018 | Houston Texans | AFC South | 4-12 | 11-5 | Lost wild card round |
| 2018 | Chicago Bears | NFC North | 5-11 | 12-4 | Lost wild card round |
| 2020 | Washington Football Team | NFC East | 3-13 | 7-9 | Lost wild card round |
| 2021 | Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 4-11-1 | 10-7 | Lost Super Bowl |
| 2022 | Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 3-14 | 9-8 | Lost divisional round |
| 2023 | Houston Texans | AFC South | 3-13-1 | 10-7 | Lost divisional round |
| 2025 | New England Patriots | AFC East | 4-13 | 14-3 | Lost Super Bowl |
| 2025 | Chicago Bears | NFC North | 5-12 | 11-6 | Lost divisional round |
All 27 made the playoffs, as every division champion does whatever the wild-card line that year, and 13 won at least one playoff game. Five reached the Super Bowl: the 2003 Carolina Panthers, the 2009 New Orleans Saints, the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals and the 2025 Patriots. The Saints and the Eagles won it; the Patriots lost last season's to the Seattle Seahawks.
- The NFC East leads with seven: the Eagles in 2006, 2013 and 2017, Washington in 2012, 2015 and 2020, and the Cowboys in 2016. The NFC South is next with six, all between 2003 and 2009.
- The NFC West has none. It is the only division without a worst-to-first team since 2002.
- Three franchises did it three times: the Eagles, Washington and the Bears (2005, 2018 and 2025).
- Two were .500 teams in last place. The 2002 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2008 Saints finished 8-8 and fourth, then won the division.
Tiebreakers decide some of these. Three of the 27 finished last only on a tiebreaker: the Chiefs in 2002, the San Diego Chargers in 2003 and the Houston Texans in 2017. Three others won the division the next year on one: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2005, Miami in 2008 and the Denver Broncos in 2011, at 8-8. Five more won the division a year after sharing the worst record in it but being placed higher on tiebreakers, most recently the Panthers: third at 5-12 in 2024, level with the Saints, and NFC South champions at 8-9 in 2025. How the NFL breaks ties walks through the league's procedures.
How often do NFL division winners repeat?
Less than half the time. Of the 184 division champions from 2002 to 2024, 79 won the division again the next season, 43 percent. Another 39 finished second, 42 third and 24 last, 13 percent. A champion fell to last almost as often as a last-place team rose to first: 24 times against 27.
| Finish in one season | First next season | Second | Third | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First (champion) | 79 (43%) | 39 (21%) | 42 (23%) | 24 (13%) |
| Second | 53 (29%) | 42 (23%) | 49 (27%) | 40 (22%) |
| Third | 25 (14%) | 65 (35%) | 51 (28%) | 43 (23%) |
| Last | 27 (15%) | 38 (21%) | 42 (23%) | 77 (42%) |
The table has one oddity: last-place teams won the next title 27 times, third-place teams 25. The gap is small, but part of the schedule depends on finish. The NFL's scheduling formula sets two games a season, three since 2021, by where each team finished in its division the year before, and in every season since 2003 those games have paired teams that finished in the same place: last-place teams play last-place teams, champions play champions.
Repeats swing from year to year. In 2012, 2014 and 2024, six of the eight champions defended their titles. In 2011 only the Patriots did, and in 2025 only the Eagles. The longest runs since 2002 belong to the Patriots, who won the AFC East 11 years in a row from 2009 to 2019, and the Chiefs, who won the AFC West nine straight times from 2016 to 2024 before Denver took it in 2025.
The fall can be steep. The Panthers went from 15-1 in 2015 to 6-10 and last in 2016, and the Detroit Lions from 15-2 in 2024 to 9-8 and last in 2025. Detroit's 9-8 is one of only two winning records to finish last since 2002, with the 2023 Bengals; they came in the only two divisions in that time in which all four teams finished above .500.
The 2025 last-place teams in the 2026 season so far
After three weeks, NFL.com's standings have four of the eight 2025 last-place teams tied for first in their divisions, led by the Las Vegas Raiders: 3-14 last season, 3-0 now, level with the Chiefs.
| Division | Team | 2025 record | 2026 record | Place in the division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC East | New York Jets | 3-14 | 1-2 | Two games behind the Buffalo Bills |
| AFC North | Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | 2-1 | Tied for first, four teams at 2-1 |
| AFC South | Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | 0-3 | Two games behind the Jacksonville Jaguars |
| AFC West | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14 | 3-0 | Tied for first with the Kansas City Chiefs |
| NFC East | New York Giants | 4-13 | 2-1 | Tied for first with the Philadelphia Eagles |
| NFC North | Detroit Lions | 9-8 | 2-1 | One game behind the Minnesota Vikings |
| NFC South | New Orleans Saints | 6-11 | 1-2 | Tied for first, three teams at 1-2 |
| NFC West | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | 1-2 | Two games behind the San Francisco 49ers |
Three games settle little. Since 2003, 13 last-place teams opened the following season 3-0, and seven of them won the division; 43 opened 2-1 and eight did. Of the 40 that started 0-3, as Tennessee has, only the 2018 Texans won it. Our look at 0-3 starts has the playoff odds for every record.
The 2025 champions are spread out. Jacksonville leads its division outright; the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Eagles and the Panthers share the lead; Denver, Chicago and Seattle are a game back; and New England, 14-3 last season, is 1-2 and two games behind Buffalo.
Week 4 puts several of these teams head to head: Pittsburgh visits Cleveland on Thursday, Kansas City plays at Las Vegas on Sunday, and the Atlanta Falcons play at New Orleans on Monday night. The Vertize NFL simulator starts from the real standings with the 48 games played locked; you can score the 224 that remain, or let the model fill them in, and watch the playoff seeding settle. The NFL schedule lists every game.
NFL worst to first: frequently asked questions
How often does an NFL team go from worst to first? 27 times in the 23 seasons from 2003 to 2025, a little more than once a year: 15 percent of last-place teams won the division the following season.
Has a worst-to-first team ever won the Super Bowl? Yes, twice since 2002: the 2009 New Orleans Saints, 8-8 and last in the NFC South in 2008, and the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, 7-9 and last in the NFC East in 2016.
How often do NFL division winners repeat? 43 percent of the time: 79 of the 184 division champions from 2002 to 2024 won the division again the next season, and 24 finished last.
Who went from worst to first in 2025? The New England Patriots, from 4-13 to 14-3 in the AFC East, and the Chicago Bears, from 5-12 to 11-6 in the NFC North. The Patriots reached the Super Bowl, where they lost to Seattle.
How this was built: the final division standings of every season from 2002 to 2025, and the 2026 standings on September 29, come from NFL.com, whose order includes the league's tiebreakers. Records, playoff results and schedules come from the nflverse games file, whose records match NFL.com's for every team and season. Where teams finished level, we also ran the tiebreakers ourselves (60 cases) and checked the 13 that decide a case here against Wikipedia; all agreed with NFL.com. A worst-to-first team finished fourth in its division and first the next season; the count starts in 2003 because 2002 was the first season of the current divisions. Seasons had 16 games through 2020 and 17 since 2021.