We lined up all 65 AP preseason polls, from 1961-62 to 2025-26, taken from College Poll Archive, with the result of every NCAA tournament; there was none in 2020. Years in this article are tournament years, so 2009 means the 2008-09 season. Every champion matches the NCAA's official list, and every champion's preseason rank matches the archive's own table.
Where national champions were ranked in the preseason
No. 1 is the single most productive place to start, but not by much. Preseason No. 1s account for 14 champions and No. 2s for 12, and the three places below them for 13 more. In all, 39 champions, 61 percent, began the season in the top five and 52, 81 percent, in the top 10.
| Preseason AP rank | Champions | Share | Since 2010 | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | 14 | 22% | 0 | North Carolina, 2009 |
| No. 2 | 12 | 19% | 3 | Baylor, 2021 |
| No. 3 to 5 | 13 | 20% | 3 | Kansas (3rd), 2022 |
| No. 6 to 10 | 13 | 20% | 5 | Michigan (7th), 2026 |
| No. 11 to 25 | 5 | 8% | 3 | Florida (21st), 2025 |
| Unranked | 7 | 11% | 2 | UConn, 2023 |
The spread has widened. None of the last 16 champions started at No. 1, and 10 of them, 63 percent, started outside the top five, against 15 of the 48 before 2010, 31 percent. The last five started third (the Kansas Jayhawks in 2022), unranked (the UConn Huskies in 2023), sixth (UConn again in 2024), 21st (the Florida Gators in 2025) and seventh (the Michigan Wolverines in 2026).
Champions that started unranked in the AP preseason poll
Seven champions were left out of the preseason poll entirely, three of them when it ranked only 10 or 20 teams:
- 1964: UCLA. Outside a 10-team preseason poll, the Bruins went 30-0 and won the first of John Wooden's 10 titles.
- 1966: Texas Western, now UTEP. Also outside a 10-team poll, it beat Kentucky 72-65 in the final. Kentucky had started unranked too.
- 1985: Villanova. Unranked in the 20-team preseason poll and again in the final poll, the Wildcats won as an 8 seed and beat the preseason No. 1, Georgetown, 66-64 in the final.
- 2003, 2006, 2011 and 2023: Syracuse, Florida and UConn twice. These are the four unranked champions since the poll grew to 25 teams in 1990. Florida then started the next season at No. 1 and won again in 2007.
Among ranked teams, the lowest start for a champion is Florida's 21st in 2025, followed by Arizona (19th in 1997), UConn (18th in 2014), NC State (16th in 1983) and Villanova (11th in 2016). All the other ranked champions started in the top 10.
How often the preseason No. 1 wins the national championship
Almost half of the 14 titles came from one program in one stretch: UCLA won six times as the preseason No. 1 between 1967 and 1973. Since then, the rate is 8 of 52 tournaments, 15 percent: Indiana in 1976, North Carolina in 1982 and 2009, UNLV in 1990, Duke in 1992, Kentucky in 1996, UConn in 2004 and Florida in 2007. Since the bracket grew to 64 teams in 1985 it is 6 of 41, also 15 percent.
Over the whole period that is a better rate than in college football, where the AP preseason No. 1 has won 11 of 76 titles since 1950, 14 percent. But the current wait, 16 tournaments since North Carolina in 2009, is more than twice as long as any before it; the previous longest were seven, from 1983 to 1989 and from 1997 to 2003.
Reaching the final has not been enough either. Preseason No. 1s have played in 25 title games and lost 11, including all five against the preseason No. 2: Cincinnati beat Ohio State in 1962, UCLA beat Michigan in 1965, UConn beat Duke in 1999, Duke beat Arizona in 2001 and Baylor beat Gonzaga in 2021.
What happens to the preseason No. 1 in March
Most preseason No. 1s go deep in March, though few go all the way: 38 of the 64 reached at least the Elite Eight and 30, 47 percent, the Final Four. At the other end, 13 lost before the Sweet 16 and four did not make the tournament.
UCLA in 1966 and South Carolina in 1970 missed the field when a conference could send only its champion, and NC State in 1975, when the Atlantic Coast Conference's two places went to North Carolina and Maryland. North Carolina in 2023 is the only one to miss since, and the first to miss a field of 64 or more.
North Carolina has started No. 1 more often than anyone, 10 times, and won twice, in 1982 and 2009. Duke has done it nine times with one title (1992) and UCLA eight times with six. Kansas, preseason No. 1 five times since 2004-05, has never reached the Sweet 16 in those seasons: it lost in the round of 64 to Bucknell in 2005 and Arkansas in 2025, and in the round of 32 in 2010, 2019 and 2024.
The strangest route belongs to Kentucky in 2014. The preseason No. 1 had dropped out of the poll by the end of the season, then reached the final as an 8 seed and lost 60-54 to UConn, a 7 seed that had started 18th.
AP preseason poll history: every No. 1 since 1961-62
| Season | Preseason No. 1 | Final AP rank | NCAA result | Champion (preseason rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961-62 | Ohio State | 1 | Runner-up | Cincinnati (2) |
| 1962-63 | Cincinnati | 1 | Runner-up | Loyola Chicago (4) |
| 1963-64 | Loyola Chicago | 8 | Sweet 16 | UCLA (NR) |
| 1964-65 | Michigan | 1 | Runner-up | UCLA (2) |
| 1965-66 | UCLA | NR | Missed | UTEP (NR) |
| 1966-67 | UCLA | 1 | Won title | UCLA (1) |
| 1967-68 | UCLA | 2 | Won title | UCLA (1) |
| 1968-69 | UCLA | 1 | Won title | UCLA (1) |
| 1969-70 | South Carolina | 6 | Missed | UCLA (4) |
| 1970-71 | UCLA | 1 | Won title | UCLA (1) |
| 1971-72 | UCLA | 1 | Won title | UCLA (1) |
| 1972-73 | UCLA | 1 | Won title | UCLA (1) |
| 1973-74 | UCLA | 3 | Final Four | NC State (2) |
| 1974-75 | NC State | 9 | Missed | UCLA (2) |
| 1975-76 | Indiana | 1 | Won title | Indiana (1) |
| 1976-77 | Michigan | 1 | Elite Eight | Marquette (2) |
| 1977-78 | North Carolina | 16 | Round of 32 | Kentucky (2) |
| 1978-79 | Duke | 11 | Round of 32 | Michigan State (7) |
| 1979-80 | Indiana | 7 | Sweet 16 | Louisville (10) |
| 1980-81 | Kentucky | 8 | Round of 32 | Indiana (5) |
| 1981-82 | North Carolina | 1 | Won title | North Carolina (1) |
| 1982-83 | Virginia | 4 | Elite Eight | NC State (16) |
| 1983-84 | North Carolina | 1 | Sweet 16 | Georgetown (4) |
| 1984-85 | Georgetown | 1 | Runner-up | Villanova (NR) |
| 1985-86 | Georgia Tech | 6 | Sweet 16 | Louisville (9) |
| 1986-87 | North Carolina | 2 | Elite Eight | Indiana (3) |
| 1987-88 | Syracuse | 9 | Round of 32 | Kansas (7) |
| 1988-89 | Duke | 9 | Final Four | Michigan (3) |
| 1989-90 | UNLV | 2 | Won title | UNLV (1) |
| 1990-91 | UNLV | 1 | Final Four | Duke (6) |
| 1991-92 | Duke | 1 | Won title | Duke (1) |
| 1992-93 | Michigan | 3 | Runner-up | North Carolina (7) |
| 1993-94 | North Carolina | 1 | Round of 32 | Arkansas (3) |
| 1994-95 | Arkansas | 6 | Runner-up | UCLA (6) |
| 1995-96 | Kentucky | 2 | Won title | Kentucky (1) |
| 1996-97 | Cincinnati | 10 | Round of 32 | Arizona (19) |
| 1997-98 | Arizona | 4 | Elite Eight | Kentucky (8) |
| 1998-99 | Duke | 1 | Runner-up | UConn (2) |
| 1999-00 | UConn | 20 | Round of 32 | Michigan State (3) |
| 2000-01 | Arizona | 5 | Runner-up | Duke (2) |
| 2001-02 | Duke | 1 | Sweet 16 | Maryland (2) |
| 2002-03 | Arizona | 2 | Elite Eight | Syracuse (NR) |
| 2003-04 | UConn | 7 | Won title | UConn (1) |
| 2004-05 | Kansas | 12 | Round of 64 | North Carolina (4) |
| 2005-06 | Duke | 1 | Sweet 16 | Florida (NR) |
| 2006-07 | Florida | 3 | Won title | Florida (1) |
| 2007-08 | North Carolina | 1 | Final Four | Kansas (4) |
| 2008-09 | North Carolina | 2 | Won title | North Carolina (1) |
| 2009-10 | Kansas | 1 | Round of 32 | Duke (9) |
| 2010-11 | Duke | 3 | Sweet 16 | UConn (NR) |
| 2011-12 | North Carolina | 4 | Elite Eight | Kentucky (2) |
| 2012-13 | Indiana | 4 | Sweet 16 | Louisville (2) |
| 2013-14 | Kentucky | NR | Runner-up | UConn (18) |
| 2014-15 | Kentucky | 1 | Final Four | Duke (4) |
| 2015-16 | North Carolina | 3 | Runner-up | Villanova (11) |
| 2016-17 | Duke | 7 | Round of 32 | North Carolina (6) |
| 2017-18 | Duke | 9 | Elite Eight | Villanova (6) |
| 2018-19 | Kansas | 17 | Round of 32 | Virginia (5) |
| 2019-20 | Michigan State | 9 | Not held | Not held |
| 2020-21 | Gonzaga | 1 | Runner-up | Baylor (2) |
| 2021-22 | Gonzaga | 1 | Sweet 16 | Kansas (3) |
| 2022-23 | North Carolina | NR | Missed | UConn (NR) |
| 2023-24 | Kansas | 17 | Round of 32 | UConn (6) |
| 2024-25 | Kansas | NR | Round of 64 | Florida (21) |
| 2025-26 | Purdue | 8 | Elite Eight | Michigan (7) |
The 2026-27 AP preseason poll: what history says
The AP has not released its 2026-27 preseason poll yet. It usually comes out in mid-October: the last five came between Oct. 13 and Oct. 18, most recently on Oct. 13, 2025, when Purdue was No. 1 for the first time in school history, with 35 first-place votes.
Purdue's season fit the pattern. The Boilermakers were eighth in the last poll before the tournament, reached the Elite Eight as a 2 seed and lost 79-64 to Arizona, while the title went to Michigan, seventh in the preseason poll.
History gives whoever is No. 1 this October roughly a one-in-five chance, and recent history less: 22 percent over 64 tournaments, 15 percent since 1985 and none in the last 16. The rest of the top 10 is where most champions come from, 38 of the 64, against 12 from outside it. The next tournament is also the first with 76 teams, with a 12-game Opening Round on March 16 and 17 before the usual bracket of 64; how far each seed line has gone since 1985 is in our March Madness seed records.
The season starts on Nov. 1 with Notre Dame against Villanova in Rome, Selection Sunday is March 14 and the national semifinals and final are on April 3 and 5 at Ford Field in Detroit. Our college basketball rankings show the AP Top 25 and the coaches poll as they stand, the final 2025-26 polls until the new ones arrive, and the schedule lists every game involving a Top 25 team, all part of the college basketball section.
Preseason No. 1 in college basketball: frequently asked questions
How often does the preseason No. 1 win the national championship? The preseason No. 1 has won it 14 times in 64 NCAA tournaments since the AP's first preseason poll in 1961-62, 22 percent. Six of those 14 were UCLA teams between 1967 and 1973.
When did the preseason No. 1 last win the NCAA tournament? In 2009, when North Carolina beat Michigan State 89-72 in the final. None has won it in the 16 tournaments since.
Has a team that was unranked in the preseason won the national championship? Seven times: UCLA in 1964, Texas Western in 1966, Villanova in 1985, Syracuse in 2003, Florida in 2006 and UConn in 2011 and 2023.
Which preseason ranking produces the most national champions? No. 1, with 14, then No. 2 with 12. Teams in the preseason top five produced 39 of the 64 champions, and teams in the top 10 produced 52.
When does the AP preseason poll come out? In mid-October. The last five were released between Oct. 13 and Oct. 18, and the 2026-27 poll had not been released when this article was published.
How this was built: the preseason and final AP polls of every season from 1961-62, the first with a preseason poll, to 2025-26, from College Poll Archive, matched with the NCAA tournament: champions and finals from NCAA.com, and each preseason No. 1's exit from the NCAA's 2006 Final Four Records Book (1962-1984) and from Wikipedia's brackets checked against NCAA.com (1985-2026). Unranked means outside a poll of 10, 20 or 25 teams, depending on the season. Results count as played, including Louisville's 2013 title, later vacated by the NCAA.