We took the halftime score of every NFL game since 1999 from nflverse's play-by-play data and the final score from its games file. Of the 6,967 regular-season games from 1999 to 2025, 20 are left out: three have no play-by-play, and in 17 the play-by-play score does not add up to the final. That leaves 6,947, and all 309 playoff games. In the regular season, the teams were level at the break in 546 games, 8 percent.
NFL halftime lead win percentage by size of the lead
Three points is not much of a cushion. A lead of one to three points at halftime was won 58 percent of the time and lost 41.7 percent, not far from a coin flip. Four to seven points held 70 percent of the time, eight to 14 points 86 percent and 15 or more 95 percent.
| Halftime lead | Regular season games | Leader won | Tie | Leader lost | Playoff games | Leader won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 3 points | 1,245 | 722 (58.0%) | 4 (0.3%) | 519 (41.7%) | 58 | 35 (60.3%) |
| 4 to 7 points | 1,994 | 1,394 (69.9%) | 6 (0.3%) | 594 (29.8%) | 80 | 56 (70.0%) |
| 8 to 14 points | 1,979 | 1,704 (86.1%) | 3 (0.2%) | 272 (13.7%) | 91 | 82 (90.1%) |
| 15 or more | 1,183 | 1,119 (94.6%) | 0 (0.0%) | 64 (5.4%) | 58 | 50 (86.2%) |
| Any lead | 6,401 | 4,939 (77.2%) | 13 (0.2%) | 1,449 (22.6%) | 287 | 223 (77.7%) |
NFL leads are less secure than soccer leads. In the same count for the Premier League, half-time leaders won 76 percent, about the NFL figure, but only 7 percent lost; most of the rest were draws. In the NFL a lead that slips nearly always becomes a defeat, since only 13 of these 6,401 games ended level, all after overtime.
How safe is a 3-, 7- or 21-point halftime lead
The most common halftime leads follow the scoring: seven points, in 849 games, and three, in 831. The most common halftime scores were 10-7 and 10-3. A two-point lead was the shakiest of all, won 52 percent of the time.
| Halftime lead | Games | Leader won | Leader lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 points | 831 | 59.1% | 40.4% |
| 7 points | 849 | 74.2% | 25.2% |
| 10 points | 632 | 82.8% | 16.9% |
| 14 points | 437 | 91.8% | 8.0% |
| 17 points | 297 | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| 21 points | 172 | 94.8% | 5.2% |
- 3 points: won 59 percent of the time, 491 of 831.
- 7 points: won 74 percent, about what a lead of four to seven points is worth as a group.
- 14 points: won 92 percent, a two-score lead that held 401 times in 437.
- 21 points or more: 486 leads, 13 lost. A lead of exactly 21 points was lost nine times.
This is the halftime version of a finding from our count of final margins: about half of NFL games end within eight points, so a lead of one score with 30 minutes left decides little.
Home and away halftime leads, and games tied at halftime
Home teams led at halftime in 3,581 regular-season games and won 79.9 percent; road teams led 2,820 times and won 73.7 percent. That six-point gap is in line with the NFL's home-field advantage, which has shrunk since 2019 but not disappeared.
When the score was level at the break, the home team won 54.0 percent of the time and the visitor 45.6 percent. Two of those 546 games stayed level to the end: Pittsburgh Steelers 16, Detroit Lions 16 in November 2021, and New York Giants 20, Washington Commanders 20 in December 2022.
The biggest halftime comebacks in NFL history
Since 1999, there have been 64 comebacks from 15 points or more down at halftime to win a regular-season game, out of 1,183 such deficits, 5.4 percent. The largest by far came on 17 December 2022, when the Minnesota Vikings trailed the Indianapolis Colts 33-0 at halftime and won 39-36 in overtime, the biggest comeback in NFL history. The next biggest were 24 points:
- Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers, 15 October 2012: 24-0 down at halftime, won 35-24.
- New England Patriots against the Denver Broncos, 24 November 2013: 24-0 down, won 34-31 in overtime.
- Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 15 December 2013: 26-3 down, won 37-36.
Nine more teams won from 21 points down at halftime, the most recent the Miami Dolphins, 28-7 behind at the Baltimore Ravens in September 2022 and 42-38 winners.
NFL playoff halftime leads and comebacks
In the playoffs, from the Wild Card round to the Super Bowl, halftime leaders won 223 of 287 games, 78 percent, about the regular-season rate. Leads of eight to 14 points held 82 times in 91; leads of 15 or more held 50 times in 58, a rate the small sample makes hard to compare. Eight teams have won a playoff game from 15 or more points down at halftime since 1999:
- Indianapolis Colts against the Kansas City Chiefs, Wild Card round, January 2014: 31-10 down, won 45-44.
- Jacksonville Jaguars against the Los Angeles Chargers, Wild Card round, January 2023: 27-7 down, won 31-30.
- New England Patriots against the Atlanta Falcons, Super Bowl LI, February 2017: 21-3 down, won 34-28 in overtime.
- Tennessee Titans at the Kansas City Chiefs, Wild Card round, January 2018: 21-3 down, won 22-21.
- Chicago Bears against the Green Bay Packers, Wild Card round, January 2026: 21-3 down, won 31-27.
- San Francisco 49ers against the Detroit Lions, NFC Championship Game, January 2024: 24-7 down, won 34-31.
- Seattle Seahawks against the Green Bay Packers, NFC Championship Game, January 2015: 16-0 down, won 28-22 in overtime.
- Indianapolis Colts against the New England Patriots, AFC Championship Game, January 2007: 21-6 down, won 38-34.
Has the halftime lead become less safe? The rate by season
Not much. Regular-season halftime leaders won 77.5 percent of the time from 1999 to 2009, 77.2 percent in the 2010s and 76.5 percent from 2020 to 2025. The small leads moved most: teams up one to three points won 60 percent in 1999-2009 and 56 percent since 2020.
One season stands out. In 2022, halftime leaders won 69.6 percent and lost 72 times, the most since 1999; it was also the season of the Vikings' 33-point comeback. The best year for leaders was 2017, 82.3 percent. The last three seasons, 78.3, 75.7 and 76.0 percent, are back near the long-run rate.
Ties are the one thing overtime adds. The 10-minute regular-season period can end level, and that is the only way a halftime lead becomes a tie: it happened 13 times.
Which NFL teams hold halftime leads best
Over the last five regular seasons, 2021 to 2025, the Minnesota Vikings won 36 of their 41 halftime leads, 87.8 percent, just ahead of the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions. The New York Jets were the only team to lose more than half of theirs, 11 of 21. The Kansas City Chiefs were the best from behind: trailing at halftime 31 times, they won 15.
| Team | Halftime leads | Won | Lost | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 41 | 36 | 5 | 87.8% |
| Buffalo Bills | 48 | 42 | 6 | 87.5% |
| Detroit Lions | 46 | 40 | 6 | 87.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | 28 | 17 | 11 | 60.7% |
| Tennessee Titans | 40 | 23 | 17 | 57.5% |
| New York Jets | 21 | 10 | 11 | 47.6% |
With 21 to 52 halftime leads per team, a few games move these rates by several points, so they say more about the last five seasons than about who will hold on next.
Halftime leads in the 2026 NFL season so far
Through Week 3 and the Thursday game that opened Week 4, the Cleveland Browns' 27-24 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on 1 October, a team led at halftime in 45 of the 49 games. Thirty-eight of those leaders won and seven lost, 84 percent held, and none tied. The biggest comeback so far: the Denver Broncos trailed the Los Angeles Rams 16-0 at halftime in Week 3 and won 30-26.
The rest of Week 4 is played on 4 and 5 October. The NFL schedule has every result, and the Vertize NFL simulator lets you pick the games left and see the standings that follow.
NFL halftime leads: frequently asked questions
How often does the team leading at halftime win in the NFL? About 77 percent of the time in the regular season since 1999, and 78 percent in the playoffs. Fewer than one in 400 halftime leads ends in a tie.
How safe is a 3-point halftime lead? Not very. Teams leading by three at halftime won 59 percent of the time and lost 40 percent.
What is the biggest halftime comeback in NFL history? 33 points: the Minnesota Vikings trailed the Indianapolis Colts 33-0 at halftime on 17 December 2022 and won 39-36 in overtime.
Who wins when an NFL game is tied at halftime? The home team, slightly more often: 54.0 percent of the time since 1999, against 45.6 percent for the visitor.
How this was built: halftime scores come from the play-by-play of every NFL game from 1999 to 2026 in nflverse-data, the score at the end of the second quarter, checked against the score before the first play of the third; final scores and game types come from the nflverse games file, and the play-by-play's final matches it in every game counted. Twenty regular-season games from 1999 to 2025 are left out: three without play-by-play and 17 whose play-by-play score is incomplete, 16 of them Jacksonville Jaguars home games in 2001 and 2002. The halftime scores of the games linked to NFL.com match its box scores. The 2026 figures run through 1 October, Week 3 plus the first game of Week 4.