The Thanksgiving rule says that the teams holding playoff places when the United States sits down for Thanksgiving dinner are usually the ones still playing when the playoffs start. We tested it against the NHL's standings for every Thanksgiving Day since 2005-06, when shootouts replaced ties, and checked who actually qualified. By then teams had played 21.5 games on average, 26 percent of an 82-game season, from about 18 in 2023-24 to about 25 in 2013-14.
Two formats cover those seasons. Through 2011-12 the top eight teams in each conference qualified, with the three division leaders seeded first to third. Since 2013-14 it has been the top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference, apart from the two seasons disrupted by the pandemic, and that format is still in use.
Three seasons are left out. A lockout delayed 2012-13 until January 19, 2013, and the COVID-19 pandemic pushed 2020-21 back to a 56-game schedule starting January 13, 2021, so neither had Thanksgiving standings. The 2019-20 season had them, but the league paused on March 12, 2020 and returned on August 1 with 24 teams. All 16 teams in a playoff position on Thanksgiving 2019 were among the 24, and 11 reached the 16-team first round; with no normal race to measure, the season is not counted.
How often NHL teams in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving make the playoffs
In the 18 seasons counted, 221 of the 288 teams in a playoff position on Thanksgiving made the playoffs, 77 percent, or about 12 of the 16 each year. The number hardly moves: never fewer than 11 and never more than 14, which happened once, in 2008-09. Between two and five teams that were outside on Thanksgiving got in every season, 67 in all.
The switch to divisions and wild cards in 2013-14 did not move the rate. Under the top-eight system, 86 of 112 Thanksgiving playoff teams qualified; under divisions and wild cards, 135 of 176. Both work out to 77 percent. For the 14 seasons counted from 2005-06 to 2021-22, our count is 171 of 224, the same as the 76.3 percent NHL Stats gave NHL.com in 2022.
NHL playoff odds at Thanksgiving, point by point
Holding a place is not the same as being safe. What matters is the margin: how far a team is ahead of the best team outside its conference's playoff places, or behind the nearest place. Teams six or more points clear made the playoffs 89 times in 95, 94 percent. Three to five points clear was worth 74 percent, and two or fewer 62 percent, barely more than the 59 percent of teams level on points but out on a tiebreaker.
Outside the line the odds fall fast: 38 percent at one or two points back, 22 percent at three to five. Since 2013-14, teams in the top three of their division on Thanksgiving made it 109 times in 132, 83 percent, while the teams holding the wild cards made it 26 times in 44, 59 percent. Before that, 38 of the 42 division leaders on Thanksgiving made the playoffs, 90 percent.
How many points back is too far in the NHL
Since 2005-06, no team more than 10 points out of a playoff position on Thanksgiving has made the playoffs; 15 have been that far behind. From six to 10 points back, 5 of 65 made it, one at each distance:
- Edmonton Oilers, 2023-24: 5-12-1 and 10 points out, with three games in hand on the Seattle Kraken, the second wild card. They finished with 104 points and reached the Stanley Cup Final.
- Washington Capitals, 2007-08: 6-14-1, last in the league and nine points out. They won the Southeast Division and lost in the first round.
- Dallas Stars, 2013-14: 12-9-2 and eight points out, with three games in hand. They finished with 91 points and lost in the first round.
- St. Louis Blues, 2018-19: 7-10-3 and seven points out, with two games in hand. They finished with 99 points and won the Stanley Cup.
- Philadelphia Flyers, 2015-16: 7-10-5 and six points out. They finished with 96 points and lost in the first round.
The Capitals, Blues and Oilers all changed coaches in November. Washington replaced Glen Hanlon with Bruce Boudreau on Thanksgiving Day itself, St. Louis replaced Mike Yeo with Craig Berube three days before it, and Edmonton replaced Jay Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch 11 days before.
Eight more teams made it from five points back, among them the last-place team in the Eastern Conference on Thanksgiving in each of the past two seasons: the Montreal Canadiens in 2024-25, who finished with 91 points, and the Buffalo Sabres in 2025-26, who went from 9-10-4 to 109 points and first place in the Atlantic Division. Of the 36 teams last in their conference on Thanksgiving since 2005-06, those two and the 2007-08 Capitals are the only ones to reach the playoffs.
Games in hand were the exception: 17 of the 67 climbers had any on the team they trailed, and 30 had played more games than it. Three of the five longest climbs had at least two. The finish line is high as well: the last team in has needed a median of 95 points over the last nine full seasons, and the point for losing in overtime keeps the teams ahead collecting points on nights they lose.
Teams out of a playoff spot at Thanksgiving that made it, season by season
| Season | Games played | Made the playoffs | Made it from outside (points back) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.4 | 12 of 16 | Canadiens (0), Flyers (0), Oilers (2), Sabres (5) |
| 2024-25 | 22.5 | 12 of 16 | Oilers (1), Blues (2), Senators (3), Canadiens (5) |
| 2023-24 | 18.3 | 13 of 16 | Islanders (2), Predators (5), Oilers (10) |
| 2022-23 | 19.8 | 13 of 16 | Oilers (0), Wild (0), Panthers (1) |
| 2021-22 | 18.8 | 12 of 16 | Predators (0), Bruins (2), Kings (2), Stars (3) |
| 2018-19 | 21.4 | 11 of 16 | Golden Knights (2), Hurricanes (2), Islanders (3), Penguins (5), Blues (7) |
| 2017-18 | 21.5 | 11 of 16 | Avalanche (0), Ducks (0), Wild (0), Bruins (1), Flyers (4) |
| 2016-17 | 20.1 | 13 of 16 | Bruins (1), Flames (2), Maple Leafs (3) |
| 2015-16 | 21.9 | 12 of 16 | Lightning (0), Ducks (4), Panthers (5), Flyers (6) |
| 2014-15 | 22.1 | 13 of 16 | Rangers (0), Senators (1), Wild (3) |
| 2013-14 | 25.3 | 13 of 16 | Flyers (4), Blue Jackets (5), Stars (8) |
| 2011-12 | 20.8 | 12 of 16 | Devils (0), Predators (0), Canucks (1), Senators (1) |
| 2010-11 | 21.3 | 12 of 16 | Blackhawks (0), Ducks (1), Predators (2), Sabres (4) |
| 2009-10 | 23.6 | 12 of 16 | Coyotes (0), Canadiens (1), Canucks (1), Red Wings (1) |
| 2008-09 | 21.5 | 14 of 16 | Blue Jackets (1), Blues (2) |
| 2007-08 | 20.9 | 11 of 16 | Ducks (1), Devils (2), Penguins (2), Flames (3), Capitals (9) |
| 2006-07 | 21.4 | 12 of 16 | Islanders (0), Lightning (0), Flames (1), Senators (2) |
| 2005-06 | 22.1 | 13 of 16 | Devils (3), Ducks (5), Sharks (5) |
The Thanksgiving playoff teams that missed
The team with the best record in the league on Thanksgiving made the playoffs 16 times in 18. Six teams missed from six or more points clear of the first team out. The most striking falls:
- Montreal Canadiens, 2015-16: 17-4-2, first in the league and 11 points clear. They finished 13th in the East with 82 points.
- St. Louis Blues, 2017-18: 16-5-1, second in the league and 10 points clear of the Colorado Avalanche. Colorado made the playoffs with 95 points, and St. Louis missed by one, ninth in the West with 94.
- Buffalo Sabres, 2018-19: 14-6-2, fourth in the league and seven points clear. They finished 13th in the East with 76 points.
- Minnesota Wild, 2011-12: 13-5-3 and first in the league. They finished 12th in the West with 81 points.
Thanksgiving 2026: where the NHL playoff race will stand
The 2026-27 season begins on Tuesday, September 29, the earliest start since 2007-08, and every team plays 84 games. US Thanksgiving is on Thursday, November 26, and no NHL games are scheduled that day. By then teams will have played between 22 and 27 games, about 25 on average, or 30 percent of the schedule. The playoff format is unchanged: the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference.
Until then, our 2026-27 projections give every team's playoff odds from 10,000 simulated seasons. After Thanksgiving, history says about four of the teams in place that day will not be there in April. The NHL simulator plays the rest of the season from the real standings, with every finished game locked, and the NHL schedule lists every game between now and November 26.
NHL Thanksgiving rule: frequently asked questions
What is the NHL Thanksgiving rule? The rule of thumb that teams in a playoff position on US Thanksgiving usually make the playoffs. Since 2005-06 it has held for 221 of 288 teams, 77 percent.
How many points back is too far at Thanksgiving? More than 10: none of the 15 teams that far out since 2005-06 made the playoffs, and only 5 of 65 did from six to 10 points back, 8 percent.
Has a last-place team at Thanksgiving ever made the NHL playoffs? Three times since 2005-06: the 2007-08 Washington Capitals, last in the whole league, and the East's last-place teams of 2024-25 and 2025-26, Montreal and Buffalo.
Does the best team on Thanksgiving always make the playoffs? No. The league leader on Thanksgiving made it 16 times in 18; the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild and the 2015-16 Montreal Canadiens missed. The best record at the end of the season is another story, told in how often the Presidents' Trophy winner wins the Stanley Cup.
When is Thanksgiving in the 2026-27 NHL season? Thursday, November 26, 2026. No games are scheduled that day, and each team will have played 22 to 27 of its 84 games.
How this was built: the NHL's standings for each US Thanksgiving Day from 2005-06 to 2025-26, from its standings API, including that day's games and checked against the league's game results. Positions follow each season's format and the NHL's tiebreakers. The API now ranks 2019-20 by points percentage, the rule adopted after the pause, so that Thanksgiving table was re-sorted by points, as it stood then. Qualifiers are the teams with a clinch mark in the final standings, matched against the playoff series. Points back is the gap to the nearest position a team could take: before 2013-14, eighth in its conference or its division lead; since then, the second wild card or third in its division. Points clear is the lead over the best team outside. Through 2021-22 the count matches the one NHL Stats gave NHL.com.