VERTIZESPORTS

Rugby Union Predictors

Pick a competition, predict the score and the tries of every game left and watch the table settle — try and losing bonus points included. Out of season, replay the last one from any round.

About the rugby predictor

The three predictors on this page work the same way: pick a winner or type a score for every game left, and the table rebuilds itself with the right bonus points for that competition. Because a try bonus depends on tries and not on the score, every game also has a try count, written by the model when you pick a winner and editable like the score.

Out of season each predictor shows the last completed season and lets you replay it from any round. When a new season's fixtures are published, the predictor switches to it on its own.

How to use the rugby predictor

  • Choose a competition. Tap a team to make it win, or type the score yourself.
  • Leave the try boxes empty and the tries are estimated from the score, at about one try per 6.8 points, which is the average in this data.
  • Use Simulate season to let the model fill every game, then change the ones you disagree with.

Rugby predictor FAQ

How does the rugby predictor decide bonus points?

From the score and the tries of each game, using each competition's own rules: one point for four or more tries in the Premiership and the Six Nations, one for three or more tries than the opposition in Super Rugby Pacific, one for losing by seven or fewer everywhere, and three for a Six Nations Grand Slam.

Where do the model's scores come from?

From a model measured on the latest completed season of each competition: the average margin and total, how much home advantage is worth and how far apart the teams are. Before a season has enough results, team strength comes from the points difference of the season before.

From the blog