Goals, Draws and How Close a League Finishes

Everyone has a theory about which league is the entertaining one. Last season the Bundesliga produced 3.24 goals a game and Serie A 2.43, which is a third fewer, and the gap between the two has nothing to do with which had the better teams.

4 min read
Bar chart of goals per game in sixteen leagues in 2025-26, from the Bundesliga on 3.24 down to Serie A on 2.43.
Goals per game in sixteen leagues, season 2025-26.Chart: Vertize Sports · Data: ESPN · CC BY 4.0

We took the final table of sixteen leagues across eight countries, added up the goals and divided by the games: 16,520 goals in 6,049 matches of the 2025-26 season. No sampling, no adjusting, just the tables as they finished.

Goals

Season 2025-26, counted from each final table. Spread is the standard deviation of the points column: the lower it is, the closer the league finished together.
LeagueCountryGoals a gameDrawsSpread
BundesligaGermany3.2424.5%17.1
EliteserienNorway3.1718.8%15.7
2. BundesligaGermany2.9324.2%10.6
National LeagueEngland2.9223.2%20.9
A-LeagueAustralia2.8726.3%7.3
AllsvenskanSweden2.8522.1%14.3
Ligue 1France2.8324.3%15.5
Premier LeagueEngland2.7527.4%15.4
La LigaSpain2.6924.5%15.8
LaLiga 2Spain2.6324.9%14.3
League OneEngland2.6325.2%15.4
ChampionshipEngland2.6126.4%17.9
League TwoEngland2.5824.8%16.0
Serie BItaly2.5631.1%14.7
Ligue 2France2.5330.4%12.3
Serie AItaly2.4326.1%17.8

The Bundesliga is top on 3.24 goals a game, with Eliteserien close behind on 3.17; Serie A sits at the bottom on 2.43. The median league in this group produces 2.72, which means a season of Bundesliga football hands you roughly one extra goal every two matches compared with a season of Serie A.

The second division numbers are the ones that surprise people. English football's fifth tier, the National League, produced 2.92 goals a game, more than the Premier League at 2.75. Lower-division football is not more cautious; it is less controlled, which is not the same thing.

The pattern is national, not divisional

Line the countries up in pairs and the leagues sort themselves by border rather than by level. Germany's two divisions are 3.24 and 2.93, the highest pair on the list. France drops from 2.83 in Ligue 1 to 2.53 in Ligue 2, the steepest fall between a first and a second tier. And Italy is the only country here where the second division outscores the first: Serie B at 2.56 against Serie A at 2.43.

Whatever produces a goal rate, it is not simply the quality of the football. The best league in this list by any measure of talent sits eighth.

Draws

Bar chart of the share of drawn matches by league in 2025-26, from Serie B on 31.1 percent down to Eliteserien on 18.8 percent.
How often a league ends level. A third of Serie B matches finished as draws.Chart: Vertize Sports · Data: ESPN · CC BY 4.0

A draw is the outcome American sport designed out of existence, and it is not a rounding error: 31.1 percent of Serie B matches ended level, against 18.8 percent in Eliteserien. Over a 38-game season that difference is roughly five extra results where nobody wins.

It also changes what a point is worth. In a league that draws a third of its games, a run of draws keeps you afloat; in one that draws a fifth, the same run leaves you behind the teams that are winning and losing around you.

How close the table finishes

The last column of the table is the one nobody publishes: the spread of the points column, which is the simplest measure of how unequal a league is. The tightest of the sixteen was the A-League at 7.3, the widest the National League at 20.9. A high number means the table stretches out, with a runaway top and a detached bottom; a low one means everyone finished within a few wins of everyone else.

This is the number that decides how a season feels. Two leagues can score identically and still produce completely different Aprils: one where four teams are alive for the title and one where the only question left is who goes down.

What it changes in a simulation

These numbers are not trivia for us. The soccer simulator draws goals from a Poisson distribution whose average is exactly this: 1.50 for the home side and 1.25 for the away side in the Premier League. Feed it a league that scores 3.24 a game and the same model needs different averages, which is why a table's goal rate is the first thing worth knowing about it.

Counted from the final 2025-26 table of each league, which is why Denmark is missing: its season splits into two groups and no single table covers it. Goals a game counts both teams, so 2.75 means a typical match finished 2-1 or 3-0. The spread is a population standard deviation of the points column, so leagues with more teams are not penalised for having more of them.