Carabao Cup Simulator
Pick who goes through in every tie. The rounds that have not been drawn yet get drawn here — open, with no seeding, exactly as the cup does it — and the winners carry all the way to the final.
Carabao CupPreliminary Round2 ties · played
Carabao CupFirst Round35 ties · played
Carabao CupSecond Round23 ties · played
Carabao CupThird Round16 ties · played
Carabao CupFourth Round8 ties · played
Carabao CupQuarterfinals4 ties · 15 Dec
About the Carabao Cup simulator
The Carabao Cup simulator lets you pick who goes through in every remaining 2026-27 tie, with no scores to enter, and carries your winners forward until the cup has a champion. Ties already played are locked with the real result, and any round not yet drawn in real life is drawn on the page at random.
The real draws for the later rounds are open, with no seeding, so the page draws them the same way. The fourth round was played on October 27-29, 2026, when League Two's Fleetwood Town beat Arsenal on penalties and Liverpool beat Chelsea on penalties. The quarterfinals are drawn for the week of December 14, and the final is at Wembley on March 21, 2027.
How to use the Carabao Cup simulator
- Click the club you think goes through in each tie, and your pick moves into the next round.
- When a round is complete, the next one is drawn at random; New draw reshuffles those pairings and clears your picks.
- Simulate to the final lets the model settle every open tie, round after round, until there is a winner.
- Ties already played cannot be changed, and Clear removes your picks while keeping the current draw.
Carabao Cup simulator FAQ
How does Simulate to the final pick the winners?
Each club is rated from last season's final tables across the pyramid: its goal difference per game within its division, plus a fixed step for each tier. The gap between two clubs becomes a win probability, the home side gets a small edge, and each tie is then decided at random with those odds.
Why do the pairings change when I press New draw?
Because the real draw for those rounds has not happened yet, the page makes its own random, unseeded draw. New draw shuffles the pairings again and resets your picks, while ties already set by the real draw, such as the quarterfinals, stay exactly as they are.
How often does a Premier League club lose to a lower-league side in the simulator?
Before home advantage, about one tie in three against a Championship club and roughly one in eight against a League Two club, for teams that were average in their divisions last season. The home edge and each club's own record then move those odds up or down.
From the blog
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